Match report →
Juventus – NEC Nijmegen5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Juventus
1.25
Total xG
2.02
NEC Nijmegen
0.77
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juventus | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.11 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.65 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.51 | |
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | −0.40 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Juventus averaged 5.6 shots on target per match in recent games
- Offensive decline: NEC Nijmegen averaged only 1.2 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 2.12
- Defensive stability: Juventus concedes an average of only 0.73 goals per game at home
Risks
- Limited data availability regarding head-to-head history and current player form statistics
- Low offensive threat from NEC Nijmegen with an average of only 2.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Extensive injury list for Juventus including sidelined players like K. Yildiz and M. Locatelli
All probabilities
Result
Juventus46%
Draw33%
NEC Nijmegen21%
Double chance
Juventus or draw79%
NEC Nijmegen or draw54%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
0:0
15%
1:1
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
9%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- NEC Nijmegen: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Juventus: 7 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
- Juventus: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Juventus 3-4-2-1 · NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
Juventus
- 1 K. Grabara
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 4 F. Gatti
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 2 M. Çelik
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 29 P. Sarr
- 22 W. McKennie
- 31 N. González
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 27 N. Woltemade
NEC Nijmegen
- 12 N. Polster
- 21 T. Storm
- 3 P. Sandler
- 66 A. Raouf Mohammed Kabar
- 99 C. Bischoff
- 6 D. Nejašmić
- 20 N. Lebreton
- 77 A. Thomas
- 9 T. Chery
- 10 D. Tadić
- 30 B. Linssen
Substitutes
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
- 25 G. Vicario
- 7 F. Conceição
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 43 F. Pagnucco
- 41 S. Owusu
- 48 D. Elimoghale
- 18 D. Geiger
- 11 W. Willumsson
- 73 Gabriel Brás
- 4 P. Schuurs
- 36 F. Entius
- 42 Y. Moslih
- 35 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 14 K. Sierhuis
- 17 B. Nuytinck
- 34 K. Kers
- 38 J. Geneste
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