đŸ‡ȘđŸ‡ș

Europa League

Juventus - NEC Nijmegen

09/17/2026, 07:00 PM

5 : 0
Expected Goals
Juventus
1.3
Total xG
2.0
NEC Nijmegen
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

0:0

15%

1:1

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
JUVNN

Juventus

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.11
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.51
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.05
Full strength squad available

NEC Nijmegen

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.65
Attack strength (1.43x league average)
-0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.28
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    NEC Nijmegen: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Juventus: 7 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

  • 3
    Juventus: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

33%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Juventus averaged 5.6 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Offensive decline: NEC Nijmegen averaged only 1.2 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 2.12
  • Defensive stability: Juventus concedes an average of only 0.73 goals per game at home
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability regarding head-to-head history and current player form statistics
  • Low offensive threat from NEC Nijmegen with an average of only 2.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Extensive injury list for Juventus including sidelined players like K. Yildiz and M. Locatelli
Overview

Juventus hosts NEC Nijmegen in the Europa League

Match on September 17, 2026, 9:00 PM at the Juventus Stadium

The home team occupies 24th place, while the visitors are in 14th

The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 46%

Expected goals are calculated at 1.25 for Juventus and 0.76 for Nijmegen

Form

Juventus shows a stable form trend with the form string DWWDL

Their record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Nijmegen is on a negative trend with the form string LWLDL

The visitors have recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Statistics

Juventus scores an average of 1.61 goals and concedes 0.89 goals per game

At home, their conceded goals average drops to 0.73 per match

NEC Nijmegen averages 2.26 goals scored but concedes 1.56 goals per game

On the road, the Dutch side concedes an average of 1.75 goals per match

Key Players

Nico GonzĂĄlez has scored 1 goal at the venue with an average rating of 7.35

Weston McKennie has registered 7 goals and 3 assists in 26 home matches for Juventus

Douglas Luiz boasts a strong average rating of 7.50 at the home stadium

Goalkeepers

Kamil Grabara starts in goal for Juventus

Nikolas Polster defends the goal for NEC Nijmegen

Juventus has kept 16 clean sheets throughout the season

Nijmegen recorded only 5 clean sheets in total

Influences

Home advantage favors Juventus with only 0.73 goals conceded per home game

Matches at the Juventus Stadium averaged 2.0 goals per game over the last 5 matches

The rate for over 2.5 goals at this venue is 0%

The match will be played on natural grass

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.