Match report →
Real Sociedad – AFC Bournemouth1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Real Sociedad
1.25
Total xG
2.02
AFC Bournemouth
0.77
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Sociedad | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.79 | |
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | +0.54 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.40 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home advantage and model prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Real Sociedad with a 46% probability of a home win
- Tactical offensive threat: Real Sociedad averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Low attacking outlook for visitors: The model predicts only 0.76 expected goals for Bournemouth in this match
Risks
- Defensive issues on the road: Bournemouth conceded an average of 1.79 goals per away match this season
- Limited data availability for current player form metrics in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Real Sociedad46%
Draw33%
AFC Bournemouth21%
Double chance
Real Sociedad or draw79%
AFC Bournemouth or draw54%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
0:0
15%
1:1
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- AFC Bournemouth: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Orri Óskarsson: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- AFC Bournemouth: dropped a lead in 6 of 10 games (13 points lost)
- Real Sociedad: 2.9 cards per game (34 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Real Sociedad 5-4-1 · AFC Bournemouth 4-4-2
Real Sociedad
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 22 H. García
- 34 L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
- 6 J. Martín Vicente
- 19 M. Sarr
- 17 S. Gómez
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 9 O. Óskarsson
AFC Bournemouth
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 15 A. Smith
- 5 J. Hill
- 14 A. Tavares Silva
- 3 A. Truffert
- 12 T. Adams
- 8 A. Scott
- 37 R. Rocha
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Substitutes
- 16 J. Pacheco Dozagarat
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
- 24 L. Sučić
- 23 A. Zakharyan
- 15 P. Marín Tejada
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 14 T. Kubo
- 29 A. Marchal Garcia
- 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
- 30 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
- 18 B. Diakité
- 11 B. Doak
- 6 J. Soler Barreto
- 10 R. Christie
- 4 L. Cook
- 7 D. Brooks
- 20 M. Di Gregorio
- 27 A. Tóth
- 55 Mack Allan
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