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Europa League

Real Sociedad - AFC Bournemouth

09/17/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Real Sociedad
1.3
Total xG
2.0
AFC Bournemouth
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

0:0

15%

1:1

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
RSAB

Real Sociedad

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.12
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Full strength squad available

AFC Bournemouth

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.79
Attack strength (1.39x league average)
+0.54
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.11
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)

  • 2
    AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    AFC Bournemouth: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Orri Óskarsson: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 5
    AFC Bournemouth: dropped a lead in 6 of 10 games (13 points lost)

  • 6
    Real Sociedad: 2.9 cards per game (34 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

33%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Home advantage and model prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Real Sociedad with a 46% probability of a home win
  • Tactical offensive threat: Real Sociedad averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Low attacking outlook for visitors: The model predicts only 0.76 expected goals for Bournemouth in this match
Risk Factors
  • Defensive issues on the road: Bournemouth conceded an average of 1.79 goals per away match this season
  • Limited data availability for current player form metrics in the provided dataset
Overview

Real Sociedad host AFC Bournemouth at the Anoeta Stadium

Europa League match on September 17, 2026, 7:00 PM

Both teams start with 0 points in the league phase

Real Sociedad sits in 27th place and Bournemouth in 23rd place

Form

Real Sociedad showing mixed form of LWDWL in recent matches

The Basque team lost their last match 0-3 against Atlético de Madrid

Bournemouth arrives with a form curve of DLDDD and three consecutive draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Real Sociedad scored an average of 1.55 goals and conceded 1.61 over 38 season games

The Basque side averages 1.54 goals scored in home games

AFC Bournemouth scored an average of 1.53 goals per match

In away matches Bournemouth concedes an average of 1.79 goals

Both teams scored in 30 out of 38 games played by the home team

Head-to-Head

There are no previous head-to-head matches recorded in the dataset

This is the first meeting between these two teams in the Europa League

Key Players

Mikel Oyarzabal impresses with 11 goals and 5 assists in 23 home matches

Orri Óskarsson has scored 8 goals in 17 appearances at the Anoeta Stadium

Ander Barrenetxea contributed 3 goals and 2 assists in 22 home games

Evanilson, Justin Kluivert and Marcus Tavernier are named in Bournemouth's starting lineup

Goalkeepers

Unai Marrero guards the home goal, holding a strong average rating of 8.34 at the Anoeta Stadium

The Basque team kept 3 clean sheets this season

Djordje Petrovic starts in goal for Bournemouth

The English side recorded 11 clean sheets in total

Influences

Real Sociedad scores an average of 1.54 goals per home game at the Anoeta Stadium

The natural grass pitch offers familiar conditions for the hosts

The visitors' defensive struggles on the road are shown by an average of 1.79 conceded goals

Weather data is not available for this match

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