Match report →
Sunderland – AZ1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sunderland
1.32
Total xG
2.09
AZ
0.77
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sunderland | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.22 | |
| Attack strength (2.14x league average) | +0.96 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.33 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2 season average) | +0.30 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: AZ averaged 8.2 shots on target and 60% possession in recent matches
- Strong form of AZ: The visitors travel with 4 wins and a draw from their last 5 games
- Predicted advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 48% for Sunderland
Risks
- Away defense: AZ concedes an average of 2.27 goals per away game
- Stalling offense: Sunderland's goal production currently averages 1.0 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Sunderland48%
Draw32%
AZ20%
Double chance
Sunderland or draw80%
AZ or draw52%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
1:1
14%
0:0
14%
2:0
11%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AZ: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Sunderland: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Everton: 2 goals (81', 90+1')
- AZ: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Sunderland: 3 cards per game (34 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Sunderland: 73% of all goals in the second half (11 of 15, last 12 games)
Lineups
Sunderland 4-2-3-1 · AZ 4-2-3-1
Sunderland
- 22 R. Roefs
- 20 N. Mukiele Mulere
- 4 K. Danso
- 15 O. Alderete Fernández
- 17 R. Mandava
- 34 G. Xhaka
- 27 N. Sadiki
- 32 T. Hume
- 28 E. Le Fée
- 39 M. Fofana
- 18 W. Isidor
AZ
- 28 J. De Busser
- 22 E. Dijkstra
- 3 W. Goes
- 4 L. Schouten
- 5 M. Chávez García
- 8 J. Clasie
- 6 P. Koopmeiners
- 24 A. Oufkir
- 10 K. Smit
- 11 R. Daal
- 9 M. Meerdink
Substitutes
- 6 D. Methalie
- 12 T. Meunier
- 13 L. O'Nien
- 9 B. Brobbey
- 5 D. Ballard
- 21 S. Moore
- 11 C. Rigg
- 10 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 48 J. Jones
- 57 T. Tuterov
- 29 J. Ahoka Jules
- 77 T. Proctor
- 17 V. Byskov Andreasen
- 34 M. De Wit
- 21 D. Kwakman
- 19 J. Hornkamp
- 7 W. Pinto Batista
- 2 S. Maikuma
- 1 R. Owusu-Oduro
- 14 C. Stengs
- 31 R. Ichihara
- 18 Bendegúz Kovács
- 29 W. Hoedt
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