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Europa League

Sunderland - AZ

09/16/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Sunderland
1.3
Total xG
2.1
AZ
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

1:1

14%

0:0

14%

2:0

11%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SUNAZ

Sunderland

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.45
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Full strength squad available

AZ

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.22
Attack strength (2.14x league average)
+0.96
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.30
Rising form (3 vs 2 season average)
+0.30
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    AZ: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Sunderland: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Everton: 2 goals (81', 90+1')

  • 3
    AZ: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)

  • 4
    Sunderland: 3 cards per game (34 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

  • 5
    Sunderland: 73% of all goals in the second half (11 of 15, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

32%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: AZ averaged 8.2 shots on target and 60% possession in recent matches
  • Strong form of AZ: The visitors travel with 4 wins and a draw from their last 5 games
  • Predicted advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 48% for Sunderland
Risk Factors
  • Away defense: AZ concedes an average of 2.27 goals per away game
  • Stalling offense: Sunderland's goal production currently averages 1.0 goals per game
Overview

Sunderland (5th place, 0 points) host AZ (13th place, 0 points) at the Stadium of Light

Europa League match on September 16, 2026, 8:00 PM

Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 48%

Form

Sunderland form: WLWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Sunderland recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last matches

AZ form: WWWWD

AZ is unbeaten in 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw

Statistics

Sunderland averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per season match

At home, the hosts score an average of 1.09 goals and concede 0.87

AZ averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match

In away matches, AZ concedes an average of 2.27 goals

Key Players

Granit Xhaka (rating of 7.17 at Stadium of Light) controls the midfield

Enzo Le FĆ©e contributed 4 goals and 2 assists in 21 home appearances

Nordi Mukiele recorded 2 goals and 3 assists with a 7.10 venue rating

Jari De Busser starts as goalkeeper in the lineup

Wouter Goes and Peer Koopmeiners secure key defensive positions

Goalkeepers

Robin Roefs starts in goal for Sunderland with a venue rating of 6.90

He kept 7 clean sheets in home games over the season

Jari De Busser starts for AZ, recording 5 clean sheets in away games

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the Stadium of Light

Historical matches at this venue average 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in only 20% of past games at this venue

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