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Europa League

Sturm Graz - Rennes

09/16/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Sturm Graz
1.3
Total xG
2.1
Rennes
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

1:1

14%

0:0

14%

2:0

11%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SGREN

Sturm Graz

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.69
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.06
Full strength squad available

Rennes

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.14
Attack strength (1.75x league average)
+0.88
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.17
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Rennes: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Rennes: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Rennes: 64% of all goals in the first half (16 of 25, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Rennes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

31%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Offensive surge: Rennes is scoring more frequently recently averaging 2.4 goals compared to their season average of 1.83
  • Rest advantage: Sturm Graz enters fresh after 36 days of rest, while Rennes had only 5 days of recovery
  • Tactical efficiency: Rennes averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches with balanced possession
Risk Factors
  • Limited data available on historical head-to-head matches and player statistics for Rennes
  • Away vulnerability: Rennes concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
  • Squad limitations: Sturm Graz starts with heavily reduced squad metrics according to the provided dataset
Overview

Sturm Graz (25th place) host Rennes (17th place) at the Merkur Arena

Europa League match on September 16, 2026, 9:00 PM

Both teams start with zero points in this league phase

Mathematical analysis favors Sturm Graz with a 49% win probability

Form

Sturm Graz enters with a WWWLL form after two consecutive losses

Rennes travels with a strong WDWWW form and three consecutive wins

The visitors show a more stable trend in recent matches

Statistics

Sturm Graz scored an average of 1.59 goals and conceded 1.09 per game this season

Rennes averages 1.74 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per match

Rennes concedes an average of 1.94 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

No previous meetings in the provided dataset

Key Players

Albert Vallci secures Sturm Graz's defense and recently scored one goal

Jacob Peter Hödl (season rating 6.59) operates in midfield

Belmin Beganovic features as forward with a 6.43 rating

Goalkeepers

Daniil Khudyakov starts in goal for Sturm Graz (season rating 6.89)

Brice Samba starts between the posts for Rennes

Sturm Graz kept 12 clean sheets this season, while Rennes secured 10

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass

Merkur Arena saw an average of 1.4 goals per match over the last 5 games

Sturm Graz has a significant rest advantage with 36 days since their last match compared to Rennes' 5 days

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