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Sturm Graz – Rennes0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sturm Graz
1.34
Total xG
2.12
Rennes
0.77
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sturm Graz | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.14 | |
| Attack strength (1.75x league average) | +0.88 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.69 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.47 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Offensive surge: Rennes is scoring more frequently recently averaging 2.4 goals compared to their season average of 1.83
- Rest advantage: Sturm Graz enters fresh after 36 days of rest, while Rennes had only 5 days of recovery
- Tactical efficiency: Rennes averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches with balanced possession
Risks
- Limited data available on historical head-to-head matches and player statistics for Rennes
- Away vulnerability: Rennes concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
- Squad limitations: Sturm Graz starts with heavily reduced squad metrics according to the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Sturm Graz49%
Draw31%
Rennes20%
Double chance
Sturm Graz or draw80%
Rennes or draw51%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
1:1
14%
0:0
14%
2:0
11%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rennes: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Rennes: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Rennes: 64% of all goals in the first half (16 of 25, last 12 games)
- Rennes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Sturm Graz 5-3-2 · Rennes 4-1-4-1
Sturm Graz
- 53 D. Khudyakov
- 28 J. Heil
- 5 A. Vallci
- 2 J. Quarshie
- 30 P. Koller
- 27 L. Balbo Vieira
- 39 L. Weinhandl
- 78 V. Matoshi
- 43 J. Hödl
- 26 B. Beganovic
- 15 G. Mamageishvili
Rennes
- 30 B. Samba
- 14 B. Reynolds
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 24 A. Rouault
- 18 M. Nagida
- 45 M. Camara
- 10 L. Blas
- 17 S. Szymański
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 11 M. Al Tamari
- 9 E. Lepaul
Substitutes
- 41 E. Lorenz
- 23 A. Malic
- 4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
- 8 F. Rózga
- 19 S. Seidl
- 22 A. Helac
- 40 J. Halwachs
- 14 O. Diakité
- 21 P. Petrović
- 25 Mate Grgic
- 38 J. Peinhart
- 70 A. Nordin
- 48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
- 26 Q. Merlin
- 21 V. Rongier
- 36 A. Seidu
- 90 I. Soumaré
- 12 E. Mayenda Dossou
- 5 G. Calisto Oliveira
- 22 B. Dia
- 65 H. Do Marcolino
- 60 K. Belazzoug
- 16 N. Lemaître
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