Champions League
Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Villarreal
01/28/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.7
1.7
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
31%
Draw
53%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
40%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
69%
No Draw
47%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Severely weakened squads: Both teams have only a fraction of their normal goal threat available (Leverkusen 23%, Villarreal 14%), making the prediction difficult
- Tactical contrast: Leverkusen's dominant possession (59%) meets Villarreal's counter-attacking style (37%)
- Form crisis vs. History: Villarreal is in a crisis with three consecutive losses but has a strong historical record against Leverkusen
Risk Factors
- High unpredictability due to absences: The massive number of missing players on both sides makes the game's outcome very difficult to predict
- Villarreal's negative form: Three consecutive losses could affect Villarreal's confidence
- Leverkusen's defensive vulnerability: The home team has conceded an average of 1.6 goals in recent games
Overview
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (20th place, 9 points) host Villarreal (35th place, 1 point) at the BayArena for a Champions League match on January 28, 2026, at 9:00 PM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table and urgently need points to improve their position.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: WLLLW
Based on the last 5 matches, there were 2 wins and 3 losses
Villarreal: WWLLL
In the last 5 games, there were 2 wins and 3 losses
Villarreal has lost the last 3 consecutive matches
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Over the entire season, both teams' offensive performances are comparable, with a scoring average of 1.94 for Leverkusen and 1.85 for Villarreal
Defensively, Villarreal appears slightly more stable with an average of 1.05 goals conceded per game, compared to Leverkusen's 1.39
In home games, Leverkusen scores an average of 2.0 goals and concedes 1.0
Away, Villarreal scores an average of 1.75 goals while conceding 1.5
In 11 of Leverkusen's 18 matches, there were over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the 4 previous head-to-head encounters, Bayer 04 Leverkusen has never won against Villarreal
Villarreal has won 3 matches, while one game ended in a draw
The goal difference is clearly in favor of Villarreal at 7:3
The last meeting in March 2016 ended in a 0-0 draw
Key Players
Alejandro Grimaldo is a key player for Leverkusen with 3 goals and 1 assist this season
Patrik Schick and Aleix GarcĂa have each contributed 2 goals for the home team
For Villarreal, Alberto Moleiro stands out, having scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games
Tani Oluwaseyi has scored 2 goals for the visitors this season
Goalkeepers
Leverkusen's first-choice goalkeeper Mark Flekken is injured; Janis Blaswich will replace him
The Bayer 04 Leverkusen team has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Villarreal, with goalkeepers Luiz JĂșnior and Arnau Tenas, has managed 7 clean sheets so far
Influences
The BayArena has an average of 3.0 goals per game, based on the last five matches
In 60% of these games, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored
Both teams are accustomed to natural grass, which gives neither side a particular advantage