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AFC Bournemouth – Sturm Graz3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
AFC Bournemouth
2.42
Total xG
3.17
Sturm Graz
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AFC Bournemouth | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.49 | +1.49 |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.72 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 0.8 league avg) | +0.46 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Prediction advantage: Statistical model puts AFC Bournemouth ahead with a 73% win probability and 2.42 expected goals
- Tactical metrics: Both teams averaged 4.8 shots on target per match across their last 5 games
- Defensive record: Sturm Graz concede an average of 0.86 goals per away match
Risks
- AFC Bournemouth's scoring rate dropped recently to 1.4 goals per game compared to 1.7 on average this season
- Sturm Graz conceded an average of 1.75 goals per game over their last 5 matches
- Limited data availability regarding individual home player form
All probabilities
Result
AFC Bournemouth73%
Draw18%
Sturm Graz9%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Double chance
AFC Bournemouth or draw91%
Sturm Graz or draw27%
No draw82%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
3:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:1
9%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AFC Bournemouth: dropped a lead in 6 of 9 games (13 points lost)
- Sturm Graz: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- AFC Bournemouth: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
AFC Bournemouth 4-4-2 · Sturm Graz 5-3-2
AFC Bournemouth
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 15 A. Smith
- 18 B. Diakité
- 14 A. Tavares Silva
- 6 J. Soler Barreto
- 11 B. Doak
- 4 L. Cook
- 12 T. Adams
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
- 30 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
Sturm Graz
- 53 D. Khudyakov
- 28 J. Heil
- 23 A. Malic
- 2 J. Quarshie
- 21 P. Petrović
- 27 L. Balbo Vieira
- 78 V. Matoshi
- 4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
- 43 J. Hödl
- 19 S. Seidl
- 26 B. Beganovic
Substitutes
- 5 J. Hill
- 21 A. Adli
- 3 A. Truffert
- 10 R. Christie
- 7 D. Brooks
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 20 M. Di Gregorio
- 27 A. Tóth
- 37 R. Rocha
- 55 Mack Allan
- 5 A. Vallci
- 41 E. Lorenz
- 25 L. Grgic
- 11 A. Kayombo
- 39 L. Weinhandl
- 22 A. Helac
- 40 J. Halwachs
- 30 P. Koller
- 14 O. Diakité
- 25 Mate Grgic
- 38 J. Peinhart
- 37 J. Petritsch
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