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Celta de Vigo – Union Saint-Gilloise1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Celta de Vigo
1.30
Total xG
2.62
Union Saint-Gilloise
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Celta de Vigo | Union Saint-Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.40 | |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −1.13 | |
| Attack strength (1.57x league average) | +0.96 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Defense: Celta de Vigo concedes 1 goal per game at home in the league, Union Saint-Gilloise 0.8 goals per game away
- Rest days: Both teams had 5 days of rest since their last match before this game
Risks
- Form: Union Saint-Gilloise is unbeaten in the league with 8 wins in 10 games, Celta de Vigo has 2 wins in 11 games
- Attack: Union Saint-Gilloise scored 2.6 goals per game in their last 5 games, Celta de Vigo scored 1 goal per game
All probabilities
Result
Celta de Vigo35%
Draw30%
Union Saint-Gilloise36%
Double chance
Celta de Vigo or draw64%
Union Saint-Gilloise or draw65%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.30 : 1.32, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.4 (16/5 games, last 30)
- Javi Rodríguez: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Celta de Vigo 3-4-3 · Union Saint-Gilloise 3-4-2-1
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 18 Y. Lago Amil
- 3 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 14 A. Febas Pérez
- 30 H. Garcia Hoz
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
- 11 P. Durán Fernández
- 19 W. Swedberg
Union Saint-Gilloise
- 12 K. Koffi
- 4 N. Chibani
- 29 M. Sylla
- 55 N. Havenaar
- 27 L. Patris
- 6 K. Van de Perre
- 8 A. Zorgane
- 11 G. da Silva Carvalho
- 38 R. Ratomo
- 23 B. Zeneli
- 13 K. Rodríguez Cortéz
Substitutes
- 4 A. Faye
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 22 J. Galán Gil
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 24 C. Driouech
- 31 ?. Arcos Cadilla
- 16 H. Sotos
- 28 A. Antañón Vieites
- 21 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 35 F. Miller
- 17 R. Schoofs
- 26 R. Sykes
- 1 V. Chambaere
- 30 R. Florucz
- 28 D. Olaru
- 21 D. De Roeve
- 32 S. Keita
- 39 Y. Hamoutahar
- 20 D. Aquino
- 25 I. Hurtevent
- 43 D. Tshilanda Kabongo
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