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Salzburg – AC Milan0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Salzburg
1.36
Total xG
2.86
AC Milan
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Salzburg | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −1.07 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Attack strength (1.32x league average) | −0.66 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Karim Konaté not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Salzburg form surge: Salzburg are scoring more recently (2.5) than their season average (1.8)
- Attacking pressure: Salzburg averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Pipeline prediction: Model assigns a 39% away win probability to AC Milan and 59% for both teams to score
Risks
- AC Milan away defensive record: AC Milan concede an average of only 0.7 goals per away game
- Squad impact in starting XI: Karim Konaté is missing from Salzburg's starting lineup
- Tight schedule: AC Milan play with only 4 days of rest since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Salzburg33%
Draw28%
AC Milan39%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Salzburg or draw61%
AC Milan or draw67%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AC Milan: 56% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (9 of 16)
- AC Milan: 88% of all goals in the second half (14 of 16, last 12 games)
- AC Milan: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Adrien Rabiot: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Salzburg: 89% of all goals in the second half (8 of 9, last 6 games)
Lineups
Salzburg 4-2-3-1 · AC Milan 3-4-2-1
Salzburg
- 52 C. Zawieschitzky
- 39 L. Morgalla
- 44 K. Boma
- 47 V. Zabransky
- 31 D. Schmid
- 32 A. Bari
- 15 B. Mazurek
- 35 J. Lindstrøm
- 8 S. Kitano
- 20 E. Baidoo
- 9 H. Tabakovic
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 23 F. Tomori
- 5 K. De Winter
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 20 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
- 30 A. Jasari
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
- 70 A. Cisse
- 73 F. Camarda
Substitutes
- 30 G. Diakité
- 11 Y. Vertessen
- 22 S. Lainer
- 13 F. Krätzig
- 4 J. Mellberg
- 7 U. Tohumcu
- 1 C. Früchtl
- 21 T. Drexler
- 23 D. Redzic
- 41 N. Šarčević
- 33 A. Camara
- 21 S. Chukwueze
- 9 G. Ramos
- 22 D. da Silva Moreira
- 80 Y. Musah
- 14 L. Modrić
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 96 L. Torriani
- 34 M. Fuentes
- 42 F. Terracciano
- 13 S. Bocoum
- 28 C. Comotto
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