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Europa League10/15/2026, 04:45 PM

Olympique Lyonnais – Crystal Palace3 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Olympique Lyonnais
1.57
Total xG
2.77
Crystal Palace
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorOlympique LyonnaisCrystal Palace
Attack strength (1.25x league average)+0.75
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean−0.73
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean−0.47
Rising form (3 vs 1.5 season average)+0.44
High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)+0.39+0.39
Attack strength (1.28x league average)+0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)+0.26
Rising form (2.5 vs 1.8 season average)+0.20
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)−0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)+0.05
Pavel Sulc on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Attacking form for Olympique Lyonnais: The team is currently scoring more frequently (2.5) than their season average (1.8)
  • Attacking trend for Crystal Palace: The team averaged 3.0 goals per match recently compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Model prediction: Calculations assign a 45% probability to a home win

Risks

  • Defensive away concern: Crystal Palace concede an average of 1.40 goals per away match
  • Absence of Pavel Sulc (1 goal, 3 assists) from the Olympique Lyonnais starting XI
  • Multiple injuries for Crystal Palace including D. Henderson, J. Mateta, T. Tomiyasu, and C. Riad

All probabilities

Result
Olympique Lyonnais45%
Draw28%
Crystal Palace27%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Olympique Lyonnais or draw73%
Crystal Palace or draw55%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Crystal Palace: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

Lineups

Olympique Lyonnais 4-3-1-2 · Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Olympique Lyonnais
  • 1 D. Greif
  • 13 Z. Athekame
  • 20 F. Bacher
  • 21 R. Kluivert
  • 16 A. Da Silva Santos
  • 99 N. Teye Nartey
  • 23 T. Morton
  • 8 C. Tolisso
  • 18 K. Merah
  • 11 K. Nakamura
  • 7 E. Appiah Nuamah
Crystal Palace
  • 44 W. BenĂ­tez
  • 26 C. Richards
  • 5 A. Disasi
  • 6 J. Canvot
  • 30 Ó. Mingueza GarcĂ­a
  • 20 A. Wharton
  • 23 Q. Timber
  • 3 T. Mitchell
  • 7 I. Sarr
  • 10 Y. JesĂșs Pino Santos
  • 22 J. Strand Larsen
Substitutes
  • 24 J. Duranville
  • 85 N. Kamara
  • 22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
  • 40 R. Descamps
  • 10 P. Ć ulc
  • 6 T. Tessmann
  • 19 M. NiakhatĂ©
  • 2 M. Bidstrup
  • 45 R. Himbert
  • 26 K. Boudache
  • 37 S. Kango
  • 25 J. Joao
  • 11 D. McNeil
  • 18 D. Kamada
  • 19 W. Hughes
  • 9 E. Nketiah
  • 31 R. Matthews
  • 21 H. Ahanor
  • 25 A. Khalaili
  • 24 D. Osorio Osorio
  • 54 D. Benamar
  • 81 L. Benetton

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