Match report →
Juventus – Rennes2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Juventus
2.60
Total xG
3.50
Rennes
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juventus | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −2.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.53 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.50 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.16 | |
| Attack strength (1.8x league average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away: Rennes concedes 3 goals per match away in the league this season in 3 matches
- Form: Juventus won 3 of their last 5 matches, Rennes 2 wins in 5 matches
- Attack: Rennes scores 2.14 goals per match in the league this season and concedes 2 per match
Risks
- Attack: Rennes generated 2.00 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data
- Form: Juventus won 3 out of 7 matches in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Juventus73%
Draw17%
Rennes10%
Double chance
Juventus or draw90%
Rennes or draw27%
No draw83%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.60 : 0.90, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
9%
3:1
8%
4:0
6%
4:1
5%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rennes: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Juventus: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sassuolo: 2 goals (82', 90+1')
- Juventus: 7 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Juventus: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Rennes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 4 of 8 games (50%)
- Rennes: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Juventus 3-5-2 · Rennes 5-3-2
Juventus
- 25 G. Vicario
- 4 F. Gatti
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 6 L. Kelly
- 2 M. Çelik
- 22 W. McKennie
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 20 A. Cambiaso
- 27 N. Woltemade
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
Rennes
- 30 B. Samba
- 14 B. Reynolds
- 48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 24 A. Rouault
- 18 M. Nagida
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 21 V. Rongier
- 45 M. Camara
- 22 B. Dia
- 11 M. Al Tamari
Substitutes
- 31 N. González
- 13 J. Boga
- 29 P. Sarr
- 32 J. Cabal Murillo
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 33 N. Murara Neto
- 51 A. Merola
- 70 A. Nordin
- 10 L. Blas
- 95 P. Frankowski
- 26 Q. Merlin
- 6 D. Cisse
- 90 I. Soumaré
- 12 E. Mayenda Dossou
- 17 S. Szymański
- 5 G. Calisto Oliveira
- 65 H. Do Marcolino
- 60 K. Belazzoug
- 16 N. Lemaître
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