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Sturm Graz – Olympique Marseille1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sturm Graz
1.21
Total xG
2.83
Olympique Marseille
1.62
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sturm Graz | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −2.25 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +1.72 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.42 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.24 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: Olympique Marseille averages 1.75 goals per game away in the league, with the model expecting 1.62 goals in the match
- Possession: Olympique Marseille averaged 52.2% possession in recent matches, while Sturm Graz averaged 44%
Risks
- Home: Sturm Graz scored 2.5 goals per game at home in the league and conceded 0.75 goals per game
- Form: Olympique Marseille suffered 3 losses in their last 5 matches, while Sturm Graz recorded 2 wins
All probabilities
Result
Sturm Graz27%
Draw28%
Olympique Marseille45%
Double chance
Sturm Graz or draw55%
Olympique Marseille or draw73%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.21 : 1.62, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Olympique Marseille: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Sturm Graz with Luca Weinhandl starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (16/7 games, last 30)
- Olympique Marseille: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 9 games. Against Angers SCO: 2 goals (83', 85')
- Olympique Marseille: 73% of all goals in the second half (11 of 15, last 9 games)
Lineups
Sturm Graz 3-4-1-2 · Olympique Marseille 4-2-3-1
Sturm Graz
- 22 A. Helac
- 23 A. Malic
- 2 J. Quarshie
- 30 P. Koller
- 43 J. Hödl
- 4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
- 78 V. Matoshi
- 27 L. Balbo Vieira
- 39 L. Weinhandl
- 19 S. Seidl
- 14 O. Diakité
Olympique Marseille
- 12 J. de Lange
- 74 K. Bezahaf
- 18 A. Meité
- 21 N. Aguerd
- 25 U. Garcia Lopes
- 19 G. Kondogbia
- 42 N. Kamissoko
- 48 K. Hikram Abdallah
- 7 A. Gomes
- 9 A. Gouiri
- 11 N. Maupay
Substitutes
- 5 A. Vallci
- 41 E. Lorenz
- 26 B. Beganovic
- 11 A. Kayombo
- 32 C. Wiener-Pucher
- 40 J. Halwachs
- 28 J. Heil
- 21 P. Petrović
- 25 Mate Grgic
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 22 T. Weah
- 14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
- 4 C. Egan Riley
- 40 J. Van Neck
- 33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
- 23 P. Højbjerg
- 77 A. Harit
- 43 T. Mmadi
- 6 T. Nadi
- 41 I. Gomis
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