Match report →
Celta de Vigo – Juventus1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Celta de Vigo
1.05
Total xG
2.41
Juventus
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Celta de Vigo | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −2.66 | |
| Attack strength (1.85x league average) | +2.21 | |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −1.11 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +0.96 | +0.96 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.70 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Pablo Durán not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Miguel Román not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Prediction advantage: Model assigns a 42% win probability to Juventus with 1.36 expected goals
- Tactical dominance: Juventus averaged 7.0 shots on target and 56% possession in recent matches
- Defensive stability: Juventus conceded an average of just 0.89 goals per game over the entire season
Risks
- Injury concerns for Juventus: 7 players including M. Locatelli, K. Yildiz, and K. Grabara are listed as unavailable
- Celta de Vigo's scoring trend: The home side currently scores 1.8 goals per game compared to their 1.5 season average
All probabilities
Result
Celta de Vigo27%
Draw31%
Juventus42%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Celta de Vigo or draw58%
Juventus or draw73%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
11%
0:1
11%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juventus: 7 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (13/7 games, last 30)
- Celta de Vigo: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)
- Juventus: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sassuolo: 2 goals (82', 90+1')
- Celta de Vigo: first goal in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Celta de Vigo 3-4-3 · Juventus 3-4-2-1
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 18 Y. Lago Amil
- 3 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 14 A. Febas Pérez
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 19 W. Swedberg
Juventus
- 25 G. Vicario
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 4 F. Gatti
- 6 L. Kelly
- 22 W. McKennie
- 29 P. Sarr
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 20 A. Cambiaso
- 7 F. Conceição
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 27 N. Woltemade
Substitutes
- 4 A. Faye
- 15 Á. Núñez Cobo
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 22 J. Galán Gil
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 24 C. Driouech
- 31 ?. Arcos Cadilla
- 16 H. Sotos
- 28 A. Antañón Vieites
- 30 H. Garcia Hoz
- 21 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 31 N. González
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
- 32 J. Cabal Murillo
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 2 M. Çelik
- 33 N. Murara Neto
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