Champions League
Paris Saint Germain - Newcastle United
01/28/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.5
1.9
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
32%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
38%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Defensive Home Advantage: PSG's extremely strong home defense (0.4 goals conceded per game) meets Newcastle's vulnerable away defense (1.71 goals conceded)
- Weakened Offenses: Both teams are struggling with only about 50% of their available goal-scoring threat, making a low-scoring game more likely than statistics suggest
- Form vs. History: PSG's superior current form (4 wins from 5 games) contradicts Newcastle's historical unbeaten record in head-to-head matches
Risk Factors
- Critical Absences: Both teams have only about 49-50% of their goal-scoring threat available, making the match outcome difficult to predict
- Guest Fatigue: Newcastle has had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could negatively impact their performance
- Contradictory Data: High goal expectations and the venue's high-scoring history starkly contrast with the heavily weakened offenses of both teams
Overview
Paris Saint Germain (6th place, 13 points) hosts Newcastle United (7th place, 13 points) at the Parc des Princes. The Champions League match takes place on January 28, 2026, at 9:00 PM. This is an important duel between two teams level on points in the table.
Form
Paris Saint Germain: WWWLW - 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 matches
Newcastle United: WDDWL - 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 matches
Paris Saint Germain's form is clearly superior based on the number of wins
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Paris Saint Germain scores an average of 2.16 goals per game this season, while Newcastle United is at 1.39 goals
PSG is particularly strong offensively at home with 2.2 goals per game and concedes only 0.4 goals
Newcastle United is more vulnerable defensively away from home, conceding an average of 1.71 goals per game
At the Parc des Princes, an average of 4.4 goals per game have been scored in the last 5 matches, with 100% of games ending with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the 2 previous direct encounters, Newcastle United has won once, while Paris Saint Germain is winless; 1 match ended in a draw
The goal difference is 5:2 in favor of Newcastle United
The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw
Newcastle United has been the more dominant team in recent encounters
Key Players
For Paris Saint Germain, Vitinha has scored 4 goals this season, while Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has scored 3 times
Ousmane Dembélé has been in outstanding form in the last 5 games with 3 goals and 3 assists
Bradley Barcola contributed 2 goals in the last 5 matches
For Newcastle United, Anthony Gordon with 6 seasonal goals and Harvey Barnes with 5 are the most dangerous players
Harvey Barnes has scored 5 goals in his last 5 appearances alone
Goalkeepers
For Paris Saint Germain, Lucas Chevalier has been in goal for 6 games this season; the team has a total of 10 clean sheets
For Newcastle United, Nick Pope has been in goal for 6 games this season; the team has achieved 7 clean sheets
Influences
The home advantage for Paris Saint Germain is statistically significant, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and only 0.4 goals conceded per home game
Newcastle United is more vulnerable away, conceding an average of 1.71 goals
The Parc des Princes has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.4 goals in the last matches
Both teams are accustomed to the grass surface at the stadium