Match report →
Celtic – Celta de Vigo1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Celtic
1.50
Total xG
2.66
Celta de Vigo
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Celtic | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Williot Swedberg on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Celtic scores 2.6 goals per game at home in the league this season, Celta de Vigo 0.25 away
- League: Celtic has 8 wins in 9 league matches this season, Celta de Vigo has 2 wins in 9 matches
- Shots on target: Celtic averages 7.4 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Celta de Vigo 3.8
Risks
- Form: Celtic lost 3 of their last 5 matches across all competitions, winning 2
- Defense: Celta de Vigo concedes 0.25 goals per game away in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Celtic44%
Draw29%
Celta de Vigo28%
Double chance
Celtic or draw72%
Celta de Vigo or draw56%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.50 : 1.15, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.5 (15/6 games, last 30)
- Celtic: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Celta de Vigo: first goal in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Celtic 4-2-3-1 · Celta de Vigo 3-4-3
Celtic
- 26 S. Johnstone
- 51 C. Donovan
- 47 D. Murray
- 5 L. Scales
- 63 K. Tierney
- 42 C. McGregor
- 22 M. Baur
- 23 H. Hassan
- 8 B. Nygren
- 19 C. Osmand
- 11 C. Durán Marquez
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 21 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 3 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 14 A. Febas Pérez
- 30 H. Garcia Hoz
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
Substitutes
- 9 K. Høgh
- 3 J. Lotomba
- 17 S. Tounekti
- 14 L. McCowan
- 49 J. Forrest
- 1 V. Sinisalo
- 56 A. Ralston
- 18 O. Jensen
- 33 S. McArdle
- 21 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
- 62 Liam Kennedy
- 4 A. Faye
- 19 W. Swedberg
- 11 P. Durán Fernández
- 18 Y. Lago Amil
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 22 J. Galán Gil
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 24 C. Driouech
- 31 ?. Arcos Cadilla
- 16 H. Sotos
- 28 A. Antañón Vieites
- 35 F. Miller
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