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Sparta Praha – AFC Bournemouth1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Sparta Praha
1.47
Total xG
2.91
AFC Bournemouth
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sparta Praha | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.61 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.50 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.34 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 5 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.44x league average) | +0.12 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Possession: Sparta Praha averaged 55.4% possession over the last 5 games, Bournemouth 54.4%
- Shots on target: Sparta Praha averaged 6.2 shots on target per game over the last 5 games, Bournemouth 5.8 per game
Risks
- Form: Bournemouth won all of their last 5 games and conceded 0 goals during this period
All probabilities
Result
Sparta Praha37%
Draw28%
AFC Bournemouth35%
Double chance
Sparta Praha or draw65%
AFC Bournemouth or draw63%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.47 : 1.44, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- AFC Bournemouth: 36% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 22)
- AFC Bournemouth: 64% of all goals in the first half (14 of 22, last 12 games)
Lineups
Sparta Praha 4-3-3 · AFC Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
Sparta Praha
- 44 J. Surovčík
- 25 K. Hoever
- 22 L. Mbe Soh
- 6 T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
- 2 M. Suchomel
- 28 R. Macek
- 20 S. Mannsverk
- 18 A. Irving
- 27 E. Singhateh
- 14 J. Brunes
- 7 J. Alcócer
AFC Bournemouth
- 20 M. Di Gregorio
- 15 A. Smith
- 5 J. Hill
- 18 B. Diakité
- 6 J. Soler Barreto
- 4 L. Cook
- 10 R. Christie
- 11 B. Doak
- 21 A. Adli
- 7 D. Brooks
- 30 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
Substitutes
- 31 M. Jurásek
- 21 J. Grimaldo
- 4 J. Martinec
- 26 P. Vydra
- 30 J. Zelený
- 5 S. Eneme
- 3 P. Kadeřábek
- 29 M. Vojta
- 38 H. Sochůrek
- 15 V. Vitályos
- 47 K. Hegyi
- 65 S. Dyntar
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 3 A. Truffert
- 12 T. Adams
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 14 A. Tavares Silva
- 37 R. Rocha
- 55 Mack Allan
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