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AFC Bournemouth – AC Milan3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
AFC Bournemouth
1.55
Total xG
2.81
AC Milan
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AFC Bournemouth | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.58 | |
| Attack strength (1.38x league average) | −0.33 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.09 | |
| Attack strength (1.38x league average) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Defense: AFC Bournemouth allowed 0.83 xG against per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1.4 goals per match
- Shots: AFC Bournemouth took 16.2 shots per match in the last 5 matches, AC Milan 12.8 per match
Risks
- League: AC Milan with 4 wins and 3 draws in 7 league matches this season, AFC Bournemouth with 1 win and 3 draws in 7 matches
- Attack: AC Milan scored 2.2 goals per match in the last 5 matches, AFC Bournemouth 1.6 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
AFC Bournemouth43%
Draw28%
AC Milan29%
Double chance
AFC Bournemouth or draw71%
AC Milan or draw57%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.55 : 1.26, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AC Milan: 43% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (10 of 23)
- AC Milan: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- AC Milan: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- Diego Moreira: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- AFC Bournemouth: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (11 points lost)
- AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
AFC Bournemouth 4-4-2 · AC Milan 3-4-2-1
AFC Bournemouth
- 20 M. Di Gregorio
- 5 J. Hill
- 18 B. Diakité
- 14 A. Tavares Silva
- 3 A. Truffert
- 11 B. Doak
- 10 R. Christie
- 12 T. Adams
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 23 F. Tomori
- 5 K. De Winter
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 22 D. da Silva Moreira
- 80 Y. Musah
- 30 A. Jasari
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 20 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
- 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
- 70 A. Cisse
Substitutes
- 30 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
- 15 A. Smith
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 21 A. Adli
- 6 J. Soler Barreto
- 4 L. Cook
- 7 D. Brooks
- 27 A. Tóth
- 37 R. Rocha
- 55 Mack Allan
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 14 L. Modrić
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 96 L. Torriani
- 34 M. Fuentes
- 73 F. Camarda
- 35 V. Vladimirov
- 13 S. Bocoum
- 28 C. Comotto
- 41 L. Bouyer
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