Match report →
AC Milan – Benfica0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
AC Milan
1.32
Total xG
2.98
Benfica
1.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AC Milan | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.79x league average) | +1.43 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.87 | |
| Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.83 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.80 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Vangelis Pavlidis on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rafa Silva on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Clément Lenglet on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gianluca Prestianni on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Leandro Barreiro on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alexander Bah not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 81% of goal output missing (only 24% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 2.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Exceptional form of Benfica with 5 consecutive wins recently compared to the inconsistent form of AC Milan
- Benfica showed great dominance recently, averaging 7.2 shots on target in recent matches
- The mathematical model favors Benfica with a calculated win probability of 44%
Risks
- Massive squad impact for Benfica: Vangelis Pavlidis, Rafa Silva, Clément Lenglet, Gianluca Prestianni, Leandro Barreiro, and Alexander Bah are missing, leaving only 24% of the usual starting line-up strength available
- Limited data availability regarding player statistics for the home team AC Milan
- Benfica has a physical disadvantage compared to AC Milan with only 3 days of rest since their last match
All probabilities
Result
AC Milan29%
Draw27%
Benfica44%
Double chance
AC Milan or draw56%
Benfica or draw71%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Benfica: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Benfica: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)
- Benfica: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- AC Milan: 5 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- AC Milan: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- AC Milan: 46% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 13)
Lineups
AC Milan 3-4-2-1 · Benfica 4-2-3-1
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 42 F. Terracciano
- 5 K. De Winter
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 21 S. Chukwueze
- 30 A. Jasari
- 80 Y. Musah
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 20 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
- 70 A. Cisse
- 9 G. Ramos
Benfica
- 1 A. Trubin
- 58 D. Fonseca da Silva Banjaqui
- 3 A. Circati
- 44 T. Araújo
- 34 S. Elkarouani
- 8 F. Aursnes
- 36 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 13 J. Kamiński
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
Substitutes
- 22 D. da Silva Moreira
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 14 L. Modrić
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 23 F. Tomori
- 56 A. Saelemaekers
- 46 M. Gabbia
- 96 L. Torriani
- 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
- 34 M. Fuentes
- 73 F. Camarda
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 30 C. Echeverri
- 18 L. Barreiro Martins
- 5 E. Barrenechea
- 14 V. Pavlidis
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
- 16 M. Silva
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 26 S. Dahl
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
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