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Europa League

AC Milan - Benfica

09/16/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
AC Milan
1.3
Total xG
3.0
Benfica
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
AMBEN

AC Milan

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.87
Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.83
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Full strength squad available

Benfica

Attack strength (1.79x league average)
+1.43
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.80
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.22
Rising form (3 vs 2.3 season average)
+0.22
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.15
Vangelis Pavlidis on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Rafa Silva on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Clément Lenglet  on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Gianluca Prestianni on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Leandro Barreiro on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Alexander Bah not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
81% of goal output missing (only 24% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 2.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Benfica: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Benfica: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)

  • 3
    Benfica: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 4
    AC Milan: 5 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 5
    AC Milan: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

  • 6
    AC Milan: 46% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 13)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

27%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Exceptional form of Benfica with 5 consecutive wins recently compared to the inconsistent form of AC Milan
  • Benfica showed great dominance recently, averaging 7.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • The mathematical model favors Benfica with a calculated win probability of 44%
Risk Factors
  • Massive squad impact for Benfica: Vangelis Pavlidis, Rafa Silva, Clément Lenglet, Gianluca Prestianni, Leandro Barreiro, and Alexander Bah are missing, leaving only 24% of the usual starting line-up strength available
  • Limited data availability regarding player statistics for the home team AC Milan
  • Benfica has a physical disadvantage compared to AC Milan with only 3 days of rest since their last match
Overview

AC Milan (9th place, 0 points) host Benfica (8th place, 0 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Europa League match on September 16, 2026, 9:00 PM

Both teams start this league phase without any points

Benfica is slightly favored by the model with a 44% win probability

Form

AC Milan has a form of LWWDD with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Recently, they recorded two consecutive draws

Benfica travels with a perfect form of WWWWW

The Portuguese side is on a run of 5 consecutive wins

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

AC Milan scored an average of 1.39 goals and conceded 0.92 in 38 league matches

Benfica averages 2.18 goals scored and 0.74 goals conceded per game

AC Milan concedes an average of 1.17 goals in home matches

Benfica shows offensive strength with 2.2 goals scored per away game

In 24 of Benfica's 34 matches, there were over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in history

AC Milan recorded 1 win, and 1 match ended in a draw

The goal difference stands at 3:2 in favor of AC Milan

The last meeting ended 1:1 on November 28, 2007

Key Players

Davide Bartesaghi scored 2 goals in 24 matches at this stadium

Gonçalo Ramos scored 1 goal in 2 home matches

Tomás Araújo has recorded 1 goal and a rating of 7.64 this season

Goalkeepers

Mike Maignan is in goal for AC Milan and recorded 15 clean sheets this season

Anatoliy Trubin guards the goal for Benfica and kept 14 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Giuseppe Meazza is known for high-scoring games, averaging 4.6 goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of the recent matches played at this stadium

Benfica has to play again after just 3 days of rest

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