Match report →
FC Midtjylland – Sint-Truiden0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
FC Midtjylland
1.69
Total xG
2.87
Sint-Truiden
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Midtjylland | Sint-Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.82 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +0.42 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Stanley Iheanacho on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gue-sung Cho on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 78% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: FC Midtjylland scores 2.2 goals per game at home in the league, Sint-Truiden concedes 2.5 away in 4 games
- Form: FC Midtjylland is unbeaten in their last 5 games with 3 wins, Sint-Truiden lost 3 of their last 5 games
Risks
- Away: Sint-Truiden scores 2.5 goals per game away in the league this season in 4 games
- Rest days: FC Midtjylland with 3 days since their last game
All probabilities
Result
FC Midtjylland48%
Draw27%
Sint-Truiden25%
Double chance
FC Midtjylland or draw75%
Sint-Truiden or draw52%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.69 : 1.18, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
Lineups
FC Midtjylland 3-1-4-2 · Sint-Truiden 4-2-3-1
FC Midtjylland
- 25 N. Bakker
- 5 R. Kristensen
- 4 O. Diao
- 22 M. Bech Sørensen
- 19 P. Bravo Landazuri
- 98 D. Martínez Morales
- 20 H. Hong
- 29 K. Wätjen
- 27 S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
- 38 J. Emefile
- 9 M. Rajovic
Sint-Truiden
- 16 L. Kokubo
- 60 R. Vanwesemael
- 4 K. Takai
- 26 V. Musliu
- 23 J. Pupe
- 8 A. Sissako
- 18 N. Ishiwatari
- 11 N. Mbuku
- 14 R. Merlen
- 10 I. Sebaoui
- 19 F. Soelle Soelle
Substitutes
- 60 M. Ugboh
- 55 V. Jensen
- 8 P. Billing
- 30 O. Ejeheim
- 10 K. Cho
- 90 F. Ubi Etim
- 17 M. Uhre
- 15 B. Dje Bi Dje
- 34 A. Ndiaye
- 18 S. Iheanacho
- 9 S. Baždar
- 27 J. Kandje Mbambi
- 7 A. Muja
- 5 S. Taniguchi
- 3 T. Hata
- 21 M. Lendfers
- 22 W. Janssens
- 38 K. Matsuzawa
- 77 O. Diouf
- 99 S. Shinkawa
- 71 R. Araki
- 35 Y. Ngoy
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