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Trabzonspor – SC Freiburg0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Trabzonspor
1.19
Total xG
2.96
SC Freiburg
1.77
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Trabzonspor | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.54 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.42 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2 season average) | +0.25 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | −0.08 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.02 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Trabzonspor score 3 goals per game at home in the league this season, SC Freiburg 1.5 goals per game away
- Attack: SC Freiburg score 2.25 goals per game in the league this season, the model expects 1.77 xG in this match
Risks
- Form: Trabzonspor with 5 wins from their last 5 matches, SC Freiburg with 2 wins from their last 5 matches
- Home: Trabzonspor conceded 0.2 goals per game at home in the league this season across 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Trabzonspor24%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg49%
Double chance
Trabzonspor or draw51%
SC Freiburg or draw76%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.19 : 1.77, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Freiburg: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Trabzonspor: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
- Keisuke Goto: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Trabzonspor with Ernest Muci starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (22/6 games, last 30)
- SC Freiburg: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Trabzonspor 4-3-3 · SC Freiburg 4-4-2
Trabzonspor
- 24 A. Onana
- 20 W. Cardoso Pina
- 27 C. Nwaiwu
- 39 C. Özkacar
- 19 M. Eskihellaç
- 3 B. Mendy
- 6 F. Tavares
- 7 E. Muçi
- 10 M. Salah
- 30 E. Onuachu
- 70 N. Jose Saviolo
SC Freiburg
- 1 M. Backhaus
- 17 L. Kübler
- 28 M. Ginter
- 3 P. Lienhart
- 33 J. Makengo
- 22 C. Irié
- 16 Y. Engelhardt
- 8 M. Eggestein
- 32 V. Grifo
- 42 K. Goto
- 31 I. Matanovic
Substitutes
- 15 S. Savić
- 4 S. Akaydin
- 57 M. Kabasakal
- 8 B. Bouchouari
- 11 O. Tufan
- 1 A. Yıldırım
- 90 O. Ertem
- 96 E. Çolak
- 81 M. Akcay
- 37 M. Rosenfelder
- 30 C. Günter
- 9 L. Höler
- 24 J. Huth
- 19 J. Beste
- 5 A. Jung
- 7 D. Scherhant
- 14 Y. Suzuki
- 29 P. Treu
- 39 R. Tarnutzer
- 20 R. Yamamoto
- 27 B. Yilmaz
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