Match report →
Ajax – Atalanta2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Ajax
1.76
Total xG
3.29
Atalanta
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ajax | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.64x league average) | +0.92 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.47 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.40 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Strong home record (4.8 vs 2.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Ajax score 2.2 goals per game at home in the league, Atalanta concede 2.33 goals per game away
- Attack: Ajax scored 2.8 goals per game with 2.68 xG per game in their last 5 matches
- Shots: Ajax averaged 8 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Atalanta 5.6 shots on target per game
Risks
- Defence: Ajax conceded 1.8 goals per game at home in 5 league matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Ajax42%
Draw26%
Atalanta32%
Double chance
Ajax or draw68%
Atalanta or draw58%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.76 : 1.52, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ajax: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Ajax: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Ajax with Julian Brandt starting: 3.2 goals/game, without him: 1.9 (11/16 games, last 30)
- Atalanta with Davide Zappacosta starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (20/5 games, last 30)
- Atalanta: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Ajax 4-2-3-1 · Atalanta 4-2-3-1
Ajax
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 2 L. Rosa
- 30 A. Bouwman
- 15 Y. Baas
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 24 J. Mokio
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 8 J. Brandt
- 10 O. Gloukh
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
Atalanta
- 29 M. Carnesecchi
- 16 R. Bellanova
- 31 T. Kristensen
- 40 R. Obrić
- 77 D. Zappacosta
- 70 G. Gaetano
- 13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 99 E. Elmas
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 59 N. Zalewski
- 9 G. Scamacca
Substitutes
- 11 V. Tsygankov
- 6 T. Kehrer
- 99 T. Arokodare
- 22 J. Heerkens
- 43 R. Bounida
- 21 J. Torrents Salvat
- 36 D. Janse
- 68 A. Ouazane
- 26 M. Paes
- 67 M. Abdalla
- 49 D. Pugno
- 47 L. Bernasconi
- 57 M. Sportiello
- 90 N. Krstović
- 8 M. Pašalić
- 10 L. Samardžić
- 11 J. Rowe
- 46 S. Levak
- 41 J. Idele
- 51 M. Sonzogni
- 48 A. Bonanomi
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