Champions League
FC Barcelona - FC København
01/28/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.7
1.6
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
30%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
75%
Over 3.5
40%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
77%
No
23%
Key Factors
- Critical personnel situation at Barcelona: Despite being favorites, data indicates only 30% of their normal goal-scoring threat is available, making the match more unpredictable
- Tactical mismatch: Barcelona's dominant possession-based football (70% possession, 8.2 shots on target) meets Copenhagen's vulnerable defense
- Form and trend advantage: Barcelona is in strong form with four wins from five games, while Copenhagen's performance trend is rated as negative
Risk Factors
- Severe personnel shortage for Barcelona: The availability of only 30% of the season's goalscorers is a significant risk to their attacking play
- Home team fatigue: Barcelona has had only three days since their last match, which could cause problems in combination with the absences
- Historical data irrelevant: The head-to-head data is from 2010 and has no relevance for the current match
Overview
FC Barcelona (9th place, 13 points) hosts FC København (26th place, 8 points) at Camp Nou
Form
FC Barcelona: WWLWW - 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss
FC København: WLLWD - 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
The form clearly favors FC Barcelona, who have won four of their last five matches, while FC København has a mixed record
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
FC Barcelona averages 2.71 goals per game this season, while FC København averages 1.67
Defensively, Barcelona concedes an average of 1.05 goals, while Copenhagen concedes 1.44
Barcelona is particularly strong at home, scoring an average of 2.82 goals and conceding only 0.45 per home game
Copenhagen scores 1.7 goals and concedes 1.4 goals per away game
At Camp Nou, matches average 3.2 goals, with 80% of games seeing over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 2 head-to-head matches, FC Barcelona has won 1 time, FC København 0 times, and 1 match ended in a draw
The goal difference is 3:1 in favor of FC Barcelona
The last encounter on November 2, 2010, ended in a 1:1 draw
Key Players
Fermín López has been a key factor for Barcelona with 5 season goals and 2 assists
Marcus Rashford has also contributed with 4 goals and 3 assists
Lamine Yamal shows rising form with 2 goals and 2 assists
For Copenhagen, Mohamed Elyounoussi is the key player with 2 goals and 4 assists
Robert has scored 4 goals and provided 1 assist
Andreas Cornelius has 3 season goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Joan García is in goal for FC Barcelona, having kept 8 clean sheets this season
For FC København, Dominik Kotarski is the number one, who has kept a clean sheet in 4 matches
Influences
FC Barcelona's home advantage is statistically significant, with an average of 2.82 goals scored and only 0.45 conceded per home game
Matches at Camp Nou are typically high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals per game and an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals
Barcelona has won 9 of 10 home games on natural grass, while Copenhagen has a record of 4 wins and 4 losses away