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FC København – Sporting Braga3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
FC København
1.32
Total xG
2.67
Sporting Braga
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC København | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.72 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.65 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.45 | |
| Attack strength (1.38x league average) | −0.31 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.19 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| M. Madsen not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marcos López on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 67% available) | ||
| Pau Víctor on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Balanced matchup: Mathematical models predict a 35% home win probability and 36% away win probability, with expected goals at 1.32 to 1.35
- Possession dynamics: Sporting Braga averaged 58% possession in recent matches, compared to København's average of 49.2%
- Shot creation: København averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent games, while Braga averaged 4.4 shots on target
Risks
- M. Madsen and Marcos López are missing from the lineup, leaving København with only 67% of their seasonal goal threat available
- Sporting Braga's recent offensive efficiency has dropped to 1.25 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.89
All probabilities
Result
FC København35%
Draw29%
Sporting Braga36%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Double chance
FC København or draw64%
Sporting Braga or draw65%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC København: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
- Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Sporting Braga: 5 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
FC København 4-4-1-1 · Sporting Braga 3-4-1-2
FC København
- 1 D. Ramaj
- 20 J. Suzuki
- 2 F. Beijmo
- 6 ?. Markgráf
- 24 B. Meling
- 12 T. Maseko
- 33 A. Král
- 36 W. Clem
- 16 R. Rodrigues Silva
- 10 M. Elyounoussi
- 39 V. Dadason
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 29 G. Baptiste
- 21 R. Horta
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 23 D. Huseinbasic
- 19 J. Older Wind
Substitutes
- 13 R. Huescas
- 27 T. Delaney
- 14 A. Cornelius
- 31 R. Rúnarsson
- 15 M. López Lanfranco
- 4 A. Sørensen
- 7 M. Carrizo
- 44 G. Ndjee
- 34 M. Nasnas
- 45 G. Olsen
- 51 T. Breum-Harild
- 28 H. Vajk Németh
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 37 L. Barišić
- 17 J. Milošević
- 10 Pau Victor
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
- 12 T. Magalhães Sá
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
- 11 G. Silva Vieira
- 16 T. Marqués Morera
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