Match report →
Getafe – Brighton & Hove Albion0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Getafe
0.83
Total xG
2.60
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.77
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Getafe | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.90 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.22 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Brighton won 3 of their last 5 matches, Getafe 1 win in their last 5 matches
- Away: Brighton scores 2.2 goals per match away in the league this season
- Possession: Brighton averaged 61.6% possession in their last 5 matches, Getafe 46.4%
Risks
- Home: Getafe conceded 0.67 goals per match at home in the league this season
- Defense: Getafe allowed 1.18 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 2.4 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Getafe16%
Draw26%
Brighton & Hove Albion58%
Double chance
Getafe or draw42%
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw84%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
0:1
From xG 0.83 : 1.77, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
0:2
12%
1:2
10%
0:3
7%
1:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Getafe: 3.8 cards per game (42 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Brighton & Hove Albion with Yasin Ayari starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1 (14/8 games, last 30)
- Getafe: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Brighton & Hove Albion: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Getafe: 45% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 11)
- Getafe: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Getafe 4-2-3-1 · Brighton & Hove Albion 3-4-3
Getafe
- 13 D. Soria Solís
- 17 F. Femenía Far
- 15 J. Boselli Graf
- 2 D. Dakonam Ortega
- 22 J. Mojica Palacio
- 8 N. Gudelj
- 23 O. Mangala
- 21 A. García Robledo
- 10 M. Satriano
- 11 R. Terrats Espacio
- 20 I. Monzón
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 30 M. Svoboda
- 5 L. Dunk
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 20 J. da Costa
- 13 P. Groß
- 26 Y. Ayari
- 3 J. Hadjam
- 35 M. Junior Yalcouyé
- 10 G. Rutter
- 8 J. Hinshelwood
Substitutes
- 9 B. Mayoral Moya
- 5 A. Abqar
- 6 M. Martín Rielves
- 1 J. Letáček
- 3 D. Cordón Mancha
- 16 F. Gracia
- 19 E. Ünal
- 28 A. Risco
- 26 J. Valou
- 35 D. Ferrer Martínez
- 4 S. Sazonov
- 44 L. Vušković
- 38 T. McGill
- 19 C. Kostoulas
- 29 M. De Cuyper
- 27 M. Wieffer
- 23 J. Steele
- 25 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 15 I. Osman
- 33 M. O'Riley
- 50 S. Nti
- 59 Y. Ibrahim
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →