Super League
Lugano - Luzern
03/07/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.9
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:2
6%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Lugano
Luzern
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
28%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Historical Dominance: Lugano has won all 5 head-to-head matches against Luzern
- Luzern's Attacking Strength: Luzern is currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average (2.0)
- Balanced Forecast: The mathematical analysis predicts a very tight match with a 37% home win, 28% draw, and 35% away win
Risk Factors
- Both teams have only 3 days since their last match, indicating potential fatigue
- Luzern concedes an average of 1.83 goals per away game
Overview
Lugano (3rd place, 49 points) host Luzern (7th place, 33 points) at the Stadio di Cornaredo
Super League match on March 7, 2026, 8:30 PM
Lugano is in the upper half of the table, while Luzern fights to catch up to the European qualification spots
Form
Lugano's form in the last five games across all competitions is 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss (DDWLW)
Their last result was a 2-1 win against Sion
Luzern shows a form of 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five games (WWWLL)
Luzern lost their last two matches 1-2 against Young Boys and Thun, respectively
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Lugano scored an average of 1.61 goals per game and conceded 1.18 goals
Luzern scored an average of 1.93 goals per game and conceded 1.89 goals
Lugano kept 7 clean sheets, Luzern 4
In Lugano's home games, an average of 1.65 goals were scored, with 0.88 goals conceded
Luzern conceded an average of 1.83 goals in away games
At the Stadio di Cornaredo, an average of 3.2 goals per game were scored
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano recorded 5 wins, Luzern 0 wins, and there were 0 draws
Lugano scored a total of 15 goals, Luzern 3
The last encounter on January 17, 2026, ended in a 5-2 victory for Lugano
Lugano has been dominant in recent meetings
Key Players
For Lugano, Kevin Behrens (11 goals, 1 assist), Anto Grgic (6 goals, 5 assists), and Uran Bislimi (5 goals, 3 assists) are important players
Kevin Behrens showed stable form in his last 2 games with 1 goal
Anto Grgic showed rising form with 1 goal in his last game
For Luzern, Matteo Di Giusto (9 goals, 10 assists), Oscar Kabwit (6 goals, 4 assists), and Adrian Grbic (6 goals, 1 assist) are the key players
Matteo Di Giusto recently showed rising form with 1 goal in his last game
Oscar Kabwit recently showed declining form with 1 goal in his last game
Goalkeepers
Lugano will start with David von Ballmoos in goal, who has 7 clean sheets this season
Luzern's goalkeeper is Pascal Loretz, who achieved 4 clean sheets this season
Influences
The Stadio di Cornaredo averages 3.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%
Lugano shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.65 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded
The pitch surface is grass