Champions League
PSV - FC Bayern München
01/28/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
4.0
2.5
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
22%
Draw
23%
Away Win
55%
Goals
Over 1.5
95%
Over 2.5
88%
Over 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
45%
Away or Draw
78%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
82%
No
18%
Key Factors
- Bayern's offensive superiority: With an average of 3.79 goals per game and 8.0 shots on target per match, Bayern's offense is statistically far stronger than PSV's
- PSV's defensive vulnerability: PSV concedes an average of 1.45 goals at home, which is a significant weakness against Bayern's potent attack
- Critical absences on both sides: Both teams are severely weakened, with less than 30% of their usual goal scorers available, making the game's dynamics unpredictable
Risk Factors
- High unpredictability due to numerous absences: The many injured and suspended players on both sides could lead to a performance that deviates significantly from season averages
- Potentially chaotic match flow: The stadium is known for extremely high-scoring games (5.0 goals on average), which, combined with weakened squads, could lead to an unexpected result
Overview
PSV (22nd place, 8 points) hosts FC Bayern München (2nd place, 18 points) at Philips Stadion for a Champions League match on January 28, 2026, at 9:00 PM. Based on the league standings and season performance, FC Bayern München enters the match as the clear favorite.
Form
PSV Form: WWWLD - 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in the last 5 matches
FC Bayern München Form: WWWWL - 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 matches
Although both teams failed to win their last respective games, FC Bayern München shows stronger overall form
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
FC Bayern München's attack is significantly superior, with a season average of 3.79 goals per game compared to PSV's 3.05
Defensively, Bayern is also more stable, conceding only 0.84 goals per game on average, while PSV concedes 1.25
Away from home, Bayern's offense is particularly potent, averaging 4.0 goals scored
PSV is strong offensively at home with 3.0 goals per game, but also vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 1.45 goals
Head-to-Head
In the 2 previous head-to-head encounters, FC Bayern München won both, while PSV has not secured a victory
The goal difference is clearly in favor of Bayern at 6:2
The last meeting was in November 2016 and ended in a 2-1 win for Bayern
Due to the long time since the last matches, the significance of this data is limited
Key Players
For PSV, Ricardo Pepi stands out with 3 season goals and 2 assists, and has been in good form with 5 goals in his last 5 games
Joey Veerman is a key creative player with 4 assists in his last five matches
For FC Bayern München, Harry Kane is the top scorer with 7 season goals
Michael Olise is in outstanding form with 3 goals and 7 assists in his last five games, while Luis Díaz has also contributed 3 season goals
Goalkeepers
PSV goalkeeper Matej Kovar has kept 5 clean sheets in 20 matches this season
Jonas Urbig is expected to be in goal for FC Bayern München
The regular goalkeeper, Manuel Neuer, has kept 8 clean sheets in 19 matches this season
Influences
Philips Stadion has seen very high-scoring games recently, with an average of 5.0 goals per game and an 80% rate of both teams scoring
Both teams are accustomed to natural grass, so there is no particular advantage
PSV has a home record of 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses on this surface, while Bayern has won 8 of 10 away games on grass