Match report →
Thun – Hearts3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Thun
1.29
Total xG
2.92
Hearts
1.62
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Thun | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.73 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.60 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Thun concede 2.8 goals per match at home in the league this season, Hearts score 1.5 per match away
- Form: Thun suffered 4 defeats in their last 5 matches, Hearts won 6 of their 11 league matches
Risks
- Away: Hearts concede 2.17 goals per match away in the league this season
- Squad: Hearts without T. Magnusson, who started 3 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Thun29%
Draw27%
Hearts44%
Double chance
Thun or draw56%
Hearts or draw71%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.30 : 1.62, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Hearts with Josh McPake starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.3 (14/14 games, last 30)
Lineups
Thun 4-4-2 · Hearts 4-4-2
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 37 L. Dähler
- 19 J. Bamert
- 23 M. Bürki
- 2 O. Mambwa
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 16 J. Roth
- 14 M. Käit
- 30 N. Maier
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
- 9 F. Dursun
Hearts
- 1 B. Reus
- 3 S. Kingsley
- 64 M. Fagan-Walcott
- 17 S. Findlay
- 5 J. Mccart
- 29 S. Kerjota
- 23 J. Altena
- 78 L. Mendy
- 15 J. McPake
- 19 S. Guendouz
- 10 C. Soares Braga
Substitutes
- 47 F. Fehr
- 33 M. Gutbub
- 25 T. Spycher
- 15 P. Kristal
- 20 R. Braschi
- 52 A. Ilic
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 21 D. Derbaci
- 80 S. Lengen
- 18 T. Strannegard
- 26 N. Christoffersson
- 28 Z. Clark
- 21 J. Wilson
- 11 P. Kabore
- 30 R. Fulton
- 39 M. Gillies
- 9 J. Williams
- 33 F. Pollock
- 38 A. Stevenson
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