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FC Midtjylland – Ajax1 : 6
Why the model thinks so
FC Midtjylland
1.29
Total xG
2.97
Ajax
1.68
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Midtjylland | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.94x league average) | +1.11 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 25 vs 13, 12 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 25, 12 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Julian Brandt not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away: Ajax scored 3.6 goals per game and conceded 0.8 per game in 5 league away matches
- Form: Ajax won 4 of its last 5 matches, FC Midtjylland won 3 of 5
- Possession: Ajax averaged 54.8% possession in the last 5 matches, FC Midtjylland 48%
Risks
- Form: FC Midtjylland is undefeated in 13 matches of the current league season with 9 wins and 4 draws
- Home: FC Midtjylland scores 2.33 goals per game at home in 6 league matches this season
All probabilities
Result
FC Midtjylland28%
Draw27%
Ajax45%
Double chance
FC Midtjylland or draw55%
Ajax or draw72%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.29 : 1.68, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:6
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ajax: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Ajax: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Ajax with Oscar Gloukh starting: 2.8 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (16/7 games, last 30)
Lineups
FC Midtjylland 3-4-1-2 · Ajax 4-2-3-1
FC Midtjylland
- 25 N. Bakker
- 4 O. Diao
- 22 M. Bech Sørensen
- 55 V. Jensen
- 5 R. Kristensen
- 29 K. Wätjen
- 8 P. Billing
- 27 S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
- 21 D. Castillo
- 10 K. Cho
- 90 F. Ubi Etim
Ajax
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 2 L. Rosa
- 6 T. Kehrer
- 36 D. Janse
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 15 Y. Baas
- 68 A. Ouazane
- 24 J. Mokio
- 10 O. Gloukh
- 99 T. Arokodare
Substitutes
- 20 H. Hong
- 60 M. Ugboh
- 30 O. Ejeheim
- 19 P. Bravo Landazuri
- 9 M. Rajovic
- 17 M. Uhre
- 38 J. Emefile
- 15 B. Dje Bi Dje
- 34 A. Ndiaye
- 18 S. Iheanacho
- 17 D. Blind
- 23 S. Berghuis
- 30 A. Bouwman
- 22 J. Heerkens
- 43 R. Bounida
- 21 J. Torrents Salvat
- 26 M. Paes
- 67 M. Abdalla
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
- 49 D. Pugno
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