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Jablonec – Brighton & Hove Albion0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Jablonec
0.76
Total xG
3.32
Brighton & Hove Albion
2.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Jablonec | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −5.58 | |
| Attack strength (1.51x league average) | +4.72 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.60 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.60 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.39 | |
| 5 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| Attack strength (1.41x league average) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| Strong home record (3 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Brighton won all of their last 5 matches, Jablonec took 1 win from their last 5 matches
- Home/Away: Brighton score 3.33 goals per match away in the Premier League, Jablonec concede 1.17 goals per match at home
- Shots: Brighton averaged 6.8 shots on target per match in recent games, Jablonec 5.4 shots on target per match
Risks
- Defense: Brighton allowed 1.46 xG per match in 7 games with xG data, but conceded 0.71 goals per match in the league
- Away: Brighton conceded 1.33 goals per match away in the Premier League, compared to 0.25 goals per match at home
All probabilities
Result
Jablonec8%
Draw17%
Brighton & Hove Albion75%
Double chance
Jablonec or draw25%
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw92%
No draw83%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
0:2
From xG 0.76 : 2.56, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
0:3
10%
1:2
9%
1:1
8%
1:3
8%
0:0
Final score
Lineups
Jablonec 4-2-3-1 · Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1
Jablonec
- 1 J. Hanuš
- 18 M. Cedidla
- 4 N. Tekijaški
- 15 D. Pavlović
- 20 J. Sláma
- 13 R. Sedláček
- 6 N. Okeke
- 7 V. Tchanturishvili
- 17 S. Alioum Moubarak
- 21 M. Polidar
- 9 A. Růsek
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 20 J. da Costa
- 30 M. Svoboda
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 3 J. Hadjam
- 13 P. Groß
- 35 M. Junior Yalcouyé
- 33 M. O'Riley
- 8 J. Hinshelwood
- 15 I. Osman
- 10 G. Rutter
Substitutes
- 36 G. Kuol
- 24 D. Hollý
- 8 F. Zorvan
- 14 D. Souček
- 19 J. Chramosta
- 25 S. Nebyla
- 57 F. Novák
- 99 K. Mihelak
- 12 D. Nykrín
- 31 Evzen Maly
- 44 L. Vušković
- 38 T. McGill
- 19 C. Kostoulas
- 5 L. Dunk
- 26 Y. Ayari
- 24 F. Kadıoğlu
- 25 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 14 J. Andrés Baixauli
- 12 P. Akinpelu
- 49 N. Oriola
- 50 S. Nti
- 59 Y. Ibrahim
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