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Getafe – Lugano2 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Getafe
1.12
Total xG
2.44
Lugano
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Getafe | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.72 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | +0.44 | |
| Rising form (3.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.44 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Renato Steffen on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Lugano with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, Getafe with 1 win
- League: Lugano with 9 wins in 10 league matches this season, Getafe with 2 wins in 9 matches
- Shots: Lugano averaged 6.4 shots on target per match in their last 5 games, Getafe 3.4
Risks
- Home: Getafe conceded 0.6 goals per match at home in 5 league games this season
- xG: Lugano recorded 1.96 xG per match in 5 games with xG data, but scored 3.4 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Getafe30%
Draw31%
Lugano39%
Double chance
Getafe or draw61%
Lugano or draw70%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.12 : 1.32, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
10%
0:1
10%
1:2
9%
1:0
8%
2:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Getafe: 4.1 cards per game (44 yellows, 5 reds in 12 games)
- Lugano: 4 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (6 points rescued)
- Lugano: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Lugano: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Getafe: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Partizan: 2 goals (87', 90')
- Lugano: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
Lineups
Getafe 4-4-2 · Lugano 3-5-2
Getafe
- 13 D. Soria Solís
- 17 F. Femenía Far
- 5 A. Abqar
- 26 J. Valou
- 3 D. Cordón Mancha
- 21 A. García Robledo
- 2 D. Dakonam Ortega
- 16 F. Gracia
- 28 A. Risco
- 9 B. Mayoral Moya
- 20 I. Monzón
Lugano
- 16 D. von Ballmoos
- 6 A. Papadopoulos
- 17 L. Mai
- 3 H. Delcroix
- 46 M. Zanotti
- 25 U. Bislimi
- 8 A. Grgic
- 27 D. dos Santos Correia
- 21 Y. Cimignani
- 30 D. Moncada
- 9 A. Ajeti
Substitutes
- 22 J. Mojica Palacio
- 8 N. Gudelj
- 6 M. Martín Rielves
- 1 J. Letáček
- 10 M. Satriano
- 11 R. Terrats Espacio
- 19 E. Ünal
- 35 D. Ferrer Martínez
- 4 S. Sazonov
- 15 J. Boselli Graf
- 91 K. Behrens
- 7 E. Alioski
- 4 D. Kelvin
- 14 A. Kendouci
- 11 R. Steffen
- 24 E. Pihlström
- 26 M. Costa Marques
- 99 D. Mina
- 2 B. Karimov
- 22 B. Castro Espinosa
- 28 F. Gebhardt
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