Champions League
Borussia Dortmund - Inter
01/28/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.4
1.7
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
28%
Draw
47%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
78%
Over 3.5
48%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
72%
No Draw
53%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- Significant personnel issues: Both teams are heavily weakened, with Inter having only 26% and Dortmund 50% of their usual goal production available
- Tactical duel: Inter's dominant possession football (59% possession) meets Dortmund's strong home defense (0.6 goals conceded per game)
- Balanced starting position: Identical form curves (DWWLW) and being direct neighbors in the table point to a match on equal terms
Risk Factors
- Unpredictable offense: Due to the many absences on both teams, the actual goal-scoring threat is difficult to assess and could deviate significantly from seasonal averages
- Contradictory signals: High goal predictions and seasonal averages contrast with the severely reduced available offensive power of both teams
Overview
Borussia Dortmund (16th place, 11 points) host Inter (14th place, 12 points) at Signal Iduna Park
The Champions League match takes place on January 28, 2026, at 9:00 PM
Both teams are close in the standings, suggesting a tight and competitive match
Form
Both teams have identical form
Borussia Dortmund: DWWLW - 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in the last five games
Inter: DWWLW - 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in the last five games
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, both teams are strong: Inter scores an average of 2.27 goals per game, Dortmund 2.0 goals
Defensively, both perform at a very similar level, with under 0.9 goals conceded per game each
Dortmund is particularly strong defensively at home, conceding only 0.6 goals per home game
Inter is very dangerous away, scoring an average of 2.43 goals per game
Head-to-Head
There have been no draws in 2 head-to-head encounters
Both Borussia Dortmund and Inter have won 1 match each
The goal difference is 3:4 from Dortmund's perspective
The last meeting ended in a 3-2 victory for Borussia Dortmund
Key Players
Serhou Guirassy is a key offensive player for Dortmund with 3 goals and 2 assists this season
Felix Nmecha and Julian Brandt have also scored 3 seasonal goals each
At Inter, Lautaro Martínez is the top scorer with 4 goals this season
Marcus Thuram has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist
Goalkeepers
Gregor Kobel of Borussia Dortmund has kept a clean sheet in 10 of 19 league matches this season
Yann Sommer of Inter has kept a clean sheet in 11 of 22 matches
Both goalkeepers show very similar statistical performances
Influences
Signal Iduna Park sees an average of 3.2 goals per game, and 60% of matches have had over 2.5 goals
Borussia Dortmund has a strong home record on natural grass with 6 wins, 3 draws, and only one loss
Inter is also very successful on this surface, having won 7 of their 10 away games