Match report →
AGF – Sporting Braga0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
AGF
0.80
Total xG
2.96
Sporting Braga
2.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AGF | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.29 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.19 | |
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Shots: Sporting Braga averaged 4.6 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, AGF 2.2 per game
- Defense: AGF conceded 1.64 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, Sporting Braga 0.94 xG per game
Risks
- Form: Sporting Braga lost 3 of their last 5 matches across all competitions
- Home: AGF scored 1.67 goals per game across 6 home matches in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
AGF11%
Draw21%
Sporting Braga68%
Double chance
AGF or draw32%
Sporting Braga or draw89%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
0:2
From xG 0.80 : 2.17, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
1:2
10%
0:3
9%
1:3
7%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AGF: 5 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Sporting Braga: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
AGF 3-4-2-1 · Sporting Braga 4-2-3-1
AGF
- 21 M. Christiansen
- 14 T. Henriksen
- 25 C. Rosler
- 33 L. Callo
- 29 R. Carstensen
- 10 K. Malt Arnstad
- 4 M. Knudsen
- 11 G. Links
- 8 S. Jørgensen
- 18 C. McCowatt
- 27 S. Tchamche
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 37 L. Barišić
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 29 G. Baptiste
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 21 R. Horta
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 10 Pau Victor
Substitutes
- 16 J. Jønsson
- 1 J. Hansen
- 5 F. Tingager
- 31 T. Kristensen
- 39 F. Emmery Søgaard
- 7 M. Solbakken
- 22 O. Haugstrup
- 20 T. Kristjánsson
- 45 C. Storch
- 26 J. Andersen
- 28 J. Bogere
- 42 M. van der Raad
- 44 M. Camara
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 19 J. Older Wind
- 23 D. Huseinbasic
- 17 J. Milošević
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 16 T. Marqués Morera
- 78 J. Gonçalo Carapinha
- 98 F. da Costa
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