Match report →
Sporting Braga – Gent2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sporting Braga
1.60
Total xG
2.40
Gent
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting Braga | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.75 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.67 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.37 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.33 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 35 vs 14, 21 places gap) | −0.28 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 14 vs 35, 21 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| Strong home record (2.7 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Possession: Sporting Braga averaged 56.6% possession in the last 5 matches, Gent 47.6% possession
- xG: Sporting Braga averaged 1.23 xG per match in the league this season (0.88 xG against), model expects 1.60 to 0.80 goals
Risks
- Form: Gent recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, Sporting Braga 1 win and 3 losses
- Home/Away: Gent scored 2 goals per match away in the league this season, Sporting Braga 1 goal per match at home
- Match interval: Sporting Braga with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Sporting Braga55%
Draw28%
Gent17%
Double chance
Sporting Braga or draw83%
Gent or draw45%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.60 : 0.80, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gent: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
- Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Sporting Braga: 4 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Sporting Braga 4-4-2 · Gent 4-2-3-1
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 37 L. Barišić
- 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
- 10 Pau Victor
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 29 G. Baptiste
- 11 G. Silva Vieira
- 21 R. Horta
- 17 J. Milošević
Gent
- 33 D. Roef
- 3 M. Paskotši
- 16 C. Burgess
- 44 S. Van der Heyden
- 20 T. Alves Araújo
- 17 M. Delorge-Knieper
- 27 T. De Vlieger
- 45 B. Goore
- 7 M. Balikwisha
- 11 M. Sonko
- 75 I. Cissé
Substitutes
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 23 D. Huseinbasic
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
- 12 T. Magalhães Sá
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 16 T. Marqués Morera
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 8 L. Bénes
- 39 A. Ayindé
- 10 A. Omgba
- 22 L. da Silva Lopes
- 28 M. El Âdfaoui
- 30 K. Peersman
- 35 G. De Meyer
- 37 A. Kadri
- 57 M. Volckaert
- 59 E. Seck
- 56 M. Aliou Diallo
- 14 K. Wilson
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →