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Monaco – Nordsjælland2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Monaco
2.67
Total xG
3.51
Nordsjælland
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monaco | Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.00 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Nicklas Røjkjær on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ibrahim Adel on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alexander Lind on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Runar Norheim on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/away: Monaco score 1.75 goals per game at home in the league this season, Nordsjælland concede 1.86 per game away
- Form: Nordsjælland are winless in their last 5 matches with 4 draws and 1 loss, Monaco won 2 of their last 5 matches
Risks
- Personnel: Monaco without A. Fati, who started in 3 of the last 5 matches
- Attack: Nordsjælland scored 1.8 goals per game in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Monaco75%
Draw16%
Nordsjælland8%
Double chance
Monaco or draw92%
Nordsjælland or draw25%
No draw84%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.67 : 0.84, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:1
8%
4:0
6%
4:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nordsjælland with Villum Berthelsen starting: 2.3 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (10/8 games, last 30)
- Nordsjælland: 7 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Monaco 4-4-2 · Nordsjælland 3-4-3
Monaco
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 49 I. Touré
- 4 J. Teze
- 15 E. Dier
- 13 C. Mawissa Elebi
- 18 T. Minamino
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 37 E. Diop
- 7 M. Detourbet
- 9 F. Balogun
- 29 P. Brunner
Nordsjælland
- 13 A. Hansen
- 25 V. Nelsson
- 3 T. Salquist
- 4 N. Hesselund Markmann
- 28 M. Walker Andersen
- 21 M. Såby Heyde
- 6 M. Brink Christensen
- 5 J. Lähteenmäki
- 9 O. Solbakken
- 37 M. Lamine Sadio
- 29 P. Berthelsen
Substitutes
- 11 M. Abline
- 72 S. Sané
- 22 M. Karim
- 2 V. de Oliveira Campos
- 14 M. Bieveth
- 8 L. Camara
- 28 M. Coulibaly
- 10 A. Golovin
- 40 J. Stawiecki
- 16 P. Köhn
- 19 P. Cabral
- 20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
- 11 A. Rasmussen
- 2 P. Ankersen
- 8 N. Røjkjær
- 10 P. Amoako Junior
- 15 S. Acquah
- 40 H. Boe Kling Rasmussen
- 23 R. Norheim
- 32 V. Malmqvist Gustafsen
- 35 V. Rutkjær
- 16 J. Busk Jensen
- 14 I. Adel
- 49 W. Faber
- 22 C. Eriksson
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