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Monaco – SC Freiburg3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Monaco
1.59
Total xG
2.91
SC Freiburg
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monaco | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.94 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.86 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | +0.42 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Monaco average 2 goals per game at home in the league this season, while SC Freiburg concede 1.33 per game away
- Attack: SC Freiburg average 2.5 goals per game in the Bundesliga this season, Monaco 2 per game at home in the league
Risks
- Form: SC Freiburg won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Monaco won 2 in the same period
- Defense: Monaco allowed 1.5 xG per game in 7 league matches with xG data, but conceded 0.86 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Monaco42%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg30%
Double chance
Monaco or draw70%
SC Freiburg or draw58%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.59 : 1.32, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Freiburg: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- SC Freiburg: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Monaco: 10 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Monaco: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Keisuke Goto: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- SC Freiburg: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Monaco 4-2-3-1 · SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
Monaco
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 2 V. de Oliveira Campos
- 72 S. Sané
- 4 J. Teze
- 13 C. Mawissa Elebi
- 8 L. Camara
- 37 E. Diop
- 28 M. Coulibaly
- 10 A. Golovin
- 7 M. Detourbet
- 29 P. Brunner
SC Freiburg
- 1 M. Backhaus
- 17 L. Kübler
- 28 M. Ginter
- 37 M. Rosenfelder
- 33 J. Makengo
- 8 M. Eggestein
- 16 Y. Engelhardt
- 19 J. Beste
- 14 Y. Suzuki
- 32 V. Grifo
- 31 I. Matanovic
Substitutes
- 11 M. Abline
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 22 M. Karim
- 14 M. Bieveth
- 18 T. Minamino
- 40 J. Stawiecki
- 16 P. Köhn
- 31 A. Fati
- 19 P. Cabral
- 49 I. Touré
- 20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
- 46 A. Soubeir
- 6 P. Osterhage
- 30 C. Günter
- 9 L. Höler
- 24 J. Huth
- 5 A. Jung
- 7 D. Scherhant
- 22 C. Irié
- 29 P. Treu
- 42 K. Goto
- 20 R. Yamamoto
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