Match report →
FC Twente – Thun1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
FC Twente
3.39
Total xG
4.10
Thun
0.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Twente | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −4.68 | |
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | +3.55 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 4.5 league avg) | −3.28 | |
| High-scoring league (5.5 goals/match) | +2.96 | +2.96 |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.85 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical control: FC Twente averaged 7.2 shots on target per match in recent games with 55% possession
- Form gap: FC Twente are unbeaten in 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), whereas Thun lost 4 of their last 5
- Model backing: The prediction model assigns FC Twente an 86% win probability with 3.39 expected goals
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Thun conceded an average of 2.6 goals per match over their last 5 games
- Low offensive output: Thun averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
FC Twente86%
Draw10%
Thun4%
Goals
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Over 3.558%
Under 3.542%
Double chance
FC Twente or draw96%
Thun or draw14%
No draw90%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
3:0
11%
4:0
9%
3:1
8%
2:1
7%
4:1
7%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Thun: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Thun: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (11 points lost)
Lineups
FC Twente 4-2-3-1 · Thun 4-4-2
FC Twente
- 16 J. Drommel
- 28 B. van Rooij
- 3 R. Pröpper
- 4 R. Nijstad
- 29 A. Adelgaard
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 8 D. Weidmann
- 11 D. Rots
- 10 Y. Taha El Idrissi
- 27 S. Ørjasæter
- 9 W. Weghorst
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 47 F. Fehr
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 19 J. Bamert
- 2 O. Mambwa
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 16 J. Roth
- 14 M. Käit
- 15 P. Kristal
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
- 9 F. Dursun
Substitutes
- 22 R. Pasveer
- 14 K. Hlynsson
- 20 T. van den Belt
- 25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 7 M. Pjaca
- 26 B. Nagel
- 18 J. Bawuah
- 31 Y. Gerritsen
- 24 K. Kurowski
- 17 F. Thorvaldsen
- 2 M. Rosiak
- 39 J. Meilink
- 37 L. Dähler
- 25 T. Spycher
- 20 R. Braschi
- 30 N. Maier
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 21 D. Derbaci
- 54 L. Passavant
- 80 S. Lengen
- 18 T. Strannegard
- 22 D. Wälti
- 26 N. Christoffersson
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