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Trabzonspor – Hearts2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Trabzonspor
1.93
Total xG
3.07
Hearts
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Trabzonspor | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −2.50 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −2.46 | |
| Attack strength (2.03x league average) | +2.11 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +1.81 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.56 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Trabzonspor score 3.25 goals per game at home in the league this season, Hearts concede 2.6 away
- Form: Trabzonspor won 4 of their last 5 games, Hearts 1 of their last 5 games
Risks
- Defence: Trabzonspor allowed 1.58 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 0.6 goals per game
- Rest days: Trabzonspor with 3 days since their last game
All probabilities
Result
Trabzonspor54%
Draw25%
Hearts21%
Double chance
Trabzonspor or draw79%
Hearts or draw46%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.92 : 1.15, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Trabzonspor: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- Hearts: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Trabzonspor 4-3-3 · Hearts 4-4-2
Trabzonspor
- 24 A. Onana
- 57 M. Kabasakal
- 4 S. Akaydin
- 39 C. Özkacar
- 55 S. Lopes Cabral
- 26 T. Jabol Folcarelli
- 3 B. Mendy
- 8 B. Bouchouari
- 10 M. Salah
- 9 F. Gluda Djú
- 70 N. Jose Saviolo
Hearts
- 1 B. Reus
- 2 C. Dahle Borchgrevink
- 64 M. Fagan-Walcott
- 5 J. Mccart
- 74 R. Mato
- 7 C. Miller
- 22 T. Magnússon
- 23 J. Altena
- 19 S. Guendouz
- 10 C. Soares Braga
- 21 J. Wilson
Substitutes
- 58 D. Simsir
- 27 C. Nwaiwu
- 7 E. Muçi
- 6 F. Tavares
- 20 W. Cardoso Pina
- 15 S. Savić
- 11 O. Tufan
- 1 A. Yıldırım
- 90 O. Ertem
- 96 E. Çolak
- 81 M. Akcay
- 78 L. Mendy
- 28 Z. Clark
- 11 P. Kabore
- 18 H. Milne
- 29 S. Kerjota
- 6 O. McEntee
- 30 R. Fulton
- 3 S. Kingsley
- 15 J. McPake
- 9 J. Williams
- 33 F. Pollock
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