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Champions League

Como - RB Leipzig

09/10/2026, 07:00 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Como
1.4
Total xG
2.3
RB Leipzig
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
COMRL

Como

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.91
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.35
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.09
Full strength squad available

RB Leipzig

Attack strength (1.28x league average)
-0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.54
+0.54
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    RB Leipzig: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Como: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 3
    RB Leipzig: 30% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (7 of 23)

  • 4
    Como: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 21)

  • 5
    RB Leipzig: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

31%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Como recently averaged 6.8 shots on target per game
  • Defensive contrast: Como concedes an average of only 0.75 goals at home, while Leipzig concedes an average of 2.08 goals away
  • Form curve: Como is recently unbeaten in 5 matches (WWDWW), while Leipzig has been inconsistent (LWLWL)
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery time: RB Leipzig plays the match with only 5 days of rest since their last game
  • Away weakness: RB Leipzig concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game
  • Limited data on historical head-to-head matches
Overview

Como (13th place, 0 points) host RB Leipzig (20th place, 0 points)

Champions League match on September 10, 2026, 9:00 PM

The model predicts Como as the favorite with a 47% win probability

Form

Como is in strong form with the string WWDWW

The hosts recently recorded 4 wins and 1 draw

RB Leipzig travels with inconsistent form of LWLWL

The visitors recently recorded 2 wins and 3 losses

Statistics

Como scores an average of 1.71 goals per game this season

Como's defense is stable, conceding only 0.76 goals per match

RB Leipzig scores an average of 1.94 goals while conceding 1.38 per game

The visitors concede an average of 2.08 goals away from home

Key Players

Anastasios Douvikas has already scored 11 goals in home games

Nico Paz contributed 6 goals and 3 assists in home matches

Christopher Nkunku has already scored once in his appearances at this venue

Goalkeepers

Jean Butez plays in goal for Como and contributed to 19 clean sheets this season

Maarten Vandevoordt guards the goal for RB Leipzig, which kept 11 clean sheets this season

Influences

Como has a home average of 1.75 goals scored per game at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

The stadium averages 3.2 goals per game

According to advancedStats, Como is currently scoring more frequently than their season average

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