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Como – RB Leipzig4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Como
1.40
Total xG
2.28
RB Leipzig
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Como | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.91 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | −0.40 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.35 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: Como recently averaged 6.8 shots on target per game
- Defensive contrast: Como concedes an average of only 0.75 goals at home, while Leipzig concedes an average of 2.08 goals away
- Form curve: Como is recently unbeaten in 5 matches (WWDWW), while Leipzig has been inconsistent (LWLWL)
Risks
- Short recovery time: RB Leipzig plays the match with only 5 days of rest since their last game
- Away weakness: RB Leipzig concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game
- Limited data on historical head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
Como47%
Draw31%
RB Leipzig22%
Double chance
Como or draw78%
RB Leipzig or draw53%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- RB Leipzig: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Como: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- RB Leipzig: 30% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (7 of 23)
- Como: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 21)
- RB Leipzig: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
Lineups
Como 4-2-3-1 · RB Leipzig 4-4-2
Como
- 1 J. Butez
- 27 Y. Couto
- 4 J. Naveros
- 99 T. Chalobah
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 11 A. Diao Diaoune
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 20 M. Baturina
- 9 A. Douvikas
RB Leipzig
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 17 R. Baku
- 4 W. Orban
- 23 C. Lukeba
- 22 D. Raum
- 30 A. Maksimović
- 21 N. El Aynaoui
- 13 N. Seiwald
- 7 A. Nordby Nusa
- 9 M. Guiu Paz
- 28 C. Nkunku
Substitutes
- 97 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 90 M. Kean
- 21 S. Ricci
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 17 J. Rodríguez Caraballo
- 5 M. Perrone
- 2 M. Kempf
- 13 A. Dossena
- 30 M. Liberali
- 16 K. da Silva
- 12 L. Ginelli
- 40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
- 27 T. Gomis
- 11 J. Bakayoko
- 39 B. Henrichs
- 8 F. Ouedraogo
- 35 M. Finkgräfe
- 16 L. Klostermann
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 10 B. Gruda
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 3 M. Esteve
- 37 B. Kaltefleiter
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