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Champions League

LOSC Lille - Real Betis

09/08/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
LOSC Lille
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Real Betis
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
LLRB

LOSC Lille

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.66
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.62
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.14
Full strength squad available

Real Betis

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.11
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    LOSC Lille: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    LOSC Lille: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    LOSC Lille: 4 of 8 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Real Betis: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

31%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Form advantage for Lille: The hosts are unbeaten in 5 matches, while Real Betis' attack has stalled recently
  • Tactical metrics: Both teams averaged a strong 5.8 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Lille concede only 1.06 goals on average at home, whereas Real Betis concede 1.81 away
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability of Real Betis with an average of 1.81 goals conceded per away game
  • Restricted data on head-to-head records and player form
Overview

LOSC Lille host Real Betis at Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Champions League match on September 8, 2026, 7:00 PM

Lille enter this league phase encounter as slight favorites

Form

LOSC Lille form: WWWDW

Real Betis form: WWWLW

Lille are unbeaten in 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw

Real Betis recorded 4 wins and 1 loss recently

Lille are currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals per game) than their season average (1.5)

Real Betis' goal production is stalling at 1.4 compared to their season average of 1.8

Statistics

Lille scored 52 goals and conceded 37 in 34 season matches

Real Betis have 59 goals scored and 48 conceded in 38 games

The hosts kept 13 clean sheets this season

Real Betis recorded 10 clean sheets this term

The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 47%

Goalkeepers

Berke Özer is in goal for LOSC Lille and achieved an average rating of 6.72 at home

Álvaro Valles guards the net for Real Betis

Özer contributed to Lille's total of 13 clean sheets

Valles is behind the defensive record with 10 clean sheets for Real Betis

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Recent matches at this venue averaged 2.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of those matches

Lille scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.06 per home game

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