Match report →
LOSC Lille – Real Betis2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
LOSC Lille
1.34
Total xG
2.20
Real Betis
0.85
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LOSC Lille | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.66 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.62 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form advantage for Lille: The hosts are unbeaten in 5 matches, while Real Betis' attack has stalled recently
- Tactical metrics: Both teams averaged a strong 5.8 shots on target per match in recent games
- Home strength vs away weakness: Lille concede only 1.06 goals on average at home, whereas Real Betis concede 1.81 away
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability of Real Betis with an average of 1.81 goals conceded per away game
- Restricted data on head-to-head records and player form
All probabilities
Result
LOSC Lille46%
Draw31%
Real Betis22%
Double chance
LOSC Lille or draw78%
Real Betis or draw54%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LOSC Lille: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- LOSC Lille: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- LOSC Lille: 4 of 8 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Real Betis: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
LOSC Lille 4-2-3-1 · Real Betis 4-2-3-1
LOSC Lille
- 1 B. Özer
- 22 T. Santos Carvalho
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 4 A. Souza Ribeiro
- 15 R. Perraud
- 21 B. André
- 6 N. Bentaleb
- 8 E. Mbappé Lottin
- 10 H. Haraldsson
- 28 G. Perrin
- 18 A. Ueda
Real Betis
- 1 Á. Vallés Rosa
- 2 H. Bellerín Moruno
- 5 M. Bartra Aregall
- 4 Natan
- 23 H. Firpo Adames
- 6 F. Bernal Cruz
- 8 P. Fornals Malla
- 7 A. dos Santos
- 22 F. Alarcón Suárez
- 17 R. Riquelme Reche
- 19 T. Parrott
Substitutes
- 2 L. Srdanovic
- 23 N. Kouassi
- 9 O. Giroud
- 24 C. Verdonk
- 17 N. Mukau
- 11 O. Sahraoui
- 7 D. Bakwa
- 14 M. Kjaergaard
- 26 I. Cossier
- 35 S. Diaoune
- 19 B. Onal
- 12 O. Gill
- 13 D. Conde Alcolado
- 11 F. García Torres
- 25 D. Ceballos Fernández
- 16 D. Gómez
- 20 G. Lo Celso
- 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
- 9 J. Hernández Suárez
- 18 N. Deossa Suárez
- 21 M. Roca Junqué
- 27 J. Morante Antúnez
- 15 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 31 M. González Pallarés
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