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RB Leipzig – PSV1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
RB Leipzig
1.44
Total xG
2.78
PSV
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | RB Leipzig | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.59 | +0.59 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.48 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.45 | |
| Attack strength (1.86x league average) | +0.42 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.25 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Attack strength (1.58x league average) | −0.03 | |
| Ricardo Pepi not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 2.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad impact: Ricardo Pepi is missing for PSV, leaving only 87% of usual starting lineup strength available
- Tactical focus: RB Leipzig averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to 4.6 for PSV
- Model prediction: The mathematical calculation sees a 38% home win probability with 1.44 expected home goals
Risks
- RB Leipzig have only 3 days of rest since their last match
- PSV concede an average of 1.36 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
RB Leipzig38%
Draw28%
PSV33%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
RB Leipzig or draw67%
PSV or draw62%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- RB Leipzig: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- PSV: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- PSV: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- PSV: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
Lineups
RB Leipzig 4-2-3-1 · PSV 4-2-3-1
RB Leipzig
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 17 R. Baku
- 4 W. Orban
- 23 C. Lukeba
- 22 D. Raum
- 21 N. El Aynaoui
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 10 B. Gruda
- 28 C. Nkunku
- 7 A. Nordby Nusa
- 40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
PSV
- 32 M. Kovář
- 8 S. Dest
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 4 A. Obispo
- 18 F. Kostić
- 24 K. Sano
- 17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 5 I. Perišić
- 20 G. Til
- 7 R. van Bommel
- 21 S. Mijnans
Substitutes
- 27 T. Gomis
- 30 A. Maksimović
- 11 J. Bakayoko
- 39 B. Henrichs
- 35 M. Finkgräfe
- 16 L. Klostermann
- 13 N. Seiwald
- 20 R. Reitz
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 3 M. Esteve
- 2 A. Koné
- 23 M. Bro Hansen
- 31 N. Fernandez
- 1 N. Olij
- 6 R. Flamingo
- 3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
- 27 D. Man
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
- 51 T. Smolenaars
- 35 A. Santos
- 37 A. Bouhamdi
- 42 S. Cornecion
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