Match report →
Feyenoord – Como3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Feyenoord
1.62
Total xG
3.11
Como
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Feyenoord | Como |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.28 | +1.28 |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −1.00 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.61 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.43 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.43 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.51x league average) | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Tsuyoshi Watanabe on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 58% of goal output missing (only 41% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad Impact: Only 42% of usual goal danger available, without Tsuyoshi Watanabe
- Form trend: Feyenoord are scoring more frequently recently (3.6 goals per match) than their season average (2.2)
- Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 40% chance for a home win and 64% for Both Teams to Score
Risks
- Fatigue: Como play with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Limited data availability for away team player form statistics
All probabilities
Result
Feyenoord40%
Draw27%
Como34%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
Feyenoord or draw66%
Como or draw60%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Como: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Feyenoord: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Feyenoord 4-3-3 · Como 4-2-3-1
Feyenoord
- 1 T. Ernst
- 26 G. Read
- 6 J. St. Juste
- 35 M. Marmol Medina
- 16 J. López Carballo
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 23 A. Hadj Moussa
- 19 I. Ferri Julià
- 10 L. Valente
Como
- 97 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 4 J. Naveros
- 99 T. Chalobah
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 5 M. Perrone
- 11 A. Diao Diaoune
- 20 M. Baturina
- 16 K. da Silva
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
Substitutes
- 39 L. Bossin
- 27 G. Diarra
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 11 G. Albuquerque Borges
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 14 S. Steijn
- 20 M. Deijl
- 22 T. van den Elshout
- 57 J. Schaken
- 36 J. Zinhagel
- 32 T. Wessels
- 33 F. Kastenmeier
- 27 Y. Couto
- 21 S. Ricci
- 17 J. Rodríguez Caraballo
- 9 A. Douvikas
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 2 M. Kempf
- 1 J. Butez
- 13 A. Dossena
- 30 M. Liberali
- 12 L. Ginelli
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →