Match report â
Roma â Real Madrid3 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Roma
1.53
Total xG
3.16
Real Madrid
1.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Roma | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 2 league avg) | â1.15 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.03 | +1.03 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | â0.38 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | â0.33 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | â0.18 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | â0.09 | |
| Attack strength (1.52x league average) | +0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Arda GĂŒler on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Model prediction: Calculates a 39% win probability for Real Madrid and 64% for Both Teams to Score
- Attacking output: Real Madrid averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Defensive home record: Roma concede an average of just 0.48 goals per home match this season
Risks
- Schedule: Roma enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Away defense: Real Madrid concede an average of 1.19 goals per away match
- Limited squad form data available for the home team
All probabilities
Result
Roma35%
Draw26%
Real Madrid39%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Double chance
Roma or draw61%
Real Madrid or draw65%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
3:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Madrid: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Roma: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Roma: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
- Real Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Roma with Manu Koné starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.5 (16/11 games, last 30)
- Real Madrid: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Roma 3-4-2-1 · Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
Roma
- 95 P. Gollini
- 23 G. Mancini
- 5 O. N'Dicka
- 22 M. Hermoso Canseco
- 43 W. França Lima
- 15 M. de Roon
- 17 K. Kone
- 20 N. Molina Lucero
- 18 M. Malvano
- 21 P. Exequiel Dybala
- 14 D. Malen
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 16 I. Konaté
- 22 A. RĂŒdiger
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 14 A. Tchouaméni
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 7 V. JĂșnior
- 10 K. Mbappé
Substitutes
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 26 L. Balerdi Rossa
- 86 R. Mora Carvalho
- 9 S. Castro
- 7 L. Pellegrini
- 87 D. Ghilardi
- 32 D. VĂĄsquez Llach
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 2 D. Rensch
- 70 G. De Marzi
- 77 E. Lulli
- 19 C. EspĂ Escrihuela
- 18 A. Carreras
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 15 A. Guler
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 13 A. Lunin
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 9 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 20 B. Silva
- 26 S. Mestre SĂĄnchez
- 27 T. Pitarch Pinar
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