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Lens – Sporting CP0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Lens
1.44
Total xG
2.77
Sporting CP
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lens | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.59 | +0.59 |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | −0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 2.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Sporting CP's impressive attack with 89 season goals (2.62 avg) faces Lens' home defense
- Lens averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Model calculations show a 58% probability for both teams to score
Risks
- Lens missing M. Nawrocki, A. Sima, and J. Gradit due to injuries
- Recent goal scoring stalled for both teams compared to season averages (Lens 1.6 vs 2.0 / Sporting CP 2.2 vs 2.5)
All probabilities
Result
Lens38%
Draw29%
Sporting CP33%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Lens or draw67%
Sporting CP or draw62%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting CP: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Sporting CP: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Sporting CP: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sporting CP: 6 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Lens: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Lens 3-4-2-1 · Sporting CP 4-3-3
Lens
- 40 R. Risser
- 25 P. Ganiou
- 6 S. Baidoo
- 32 K. Antonio
- 23 S. Abdul Hamid
- 27 M. Cuisance
- 21 A. Haidara
- 14 M. Udol
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 28 J. Kadile
- 29 F. Ivanović
Sporting CP
- 30 K. Pereira Azarias
- 22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
- 72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
- 25 G. Inácio
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 8 J. Arnauth Barrocas Simões
- 5 S. Altimira Clavell
- 77 I. Doumbia
- 10 G. Cipriano Catamo
- 97 L. Suárez Charris
- 19 N. Irankunda
Substitutes
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 4 N. Čelik
- 11 O. Édouard
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 20 J. Todibo
- 9 T. Hazard
- 8 Y. Titraoui
- 16 M. Gorgelin
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 31 S. Sagnan
- 38 M.Soares
- 13 G. Vagiannidis
- 7 F. Ioannidis
- 31 L. Lira dos Santos
- 1 R. Dantas da Silva
- 4 S. Andersen
- 58 F. Gonçalves
- 73 E. Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo
- 9 R. Nel
- 21 P. Lima Barros
- 55 I. Ba
- 28 J. Derry
- 18 M. Zekri
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