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Champions League10/14/2026, 07:00 PM

Real Betis – Porto3 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Real Betis
1.91
Total xG
3.15
Porto
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorReal BetisPorto
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean−2.45
Attack strength (1.84x league average)+2.03
High-scoring league (4.2 goals/match)+1.70+1.70
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 2.6 league avg)−1.24
Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)−1.01
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean+0.85
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)+0.17
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average)+0.17
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)+0.08
Full strength squad available
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Prediction edge: Statistical modeling calculates a 52% home win probability and 1.91 expected goals for Real Betis
  • Form surge: Real Betis are unbeaten in 5 matches, lifting their recent scoring rate to 2.4 goals per match
  • Offensive dominance: Real Betis averaged 55.4% possession and 7.2 shots on target in recent matches

Risks

  • Tight schedule: Real Betis enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last fixture
  • Opponent's defensive stability: Porto concede an average of just 0.71 away goals per match

All probabilities

Result
Real Betis52%
Draw25%
Porto23%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Double chance
Real Betis or draw77%
Porto or draw48%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%

Most likely scores

1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
3:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Porto: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
  2. Real Betis: 36% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 22)
  3. Borja Sainz: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
  4. Real Betis: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Lineups

Real Betis 4-2-3-1 · Porto 4-3-3

Real Betis
  • 1 Á. VallĂ©s Rosa
  • 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
  • 5 M. Bartra Aregall
  • 4 Natan
  • 11 F. GarcĂ­a Torres
  • 18 N. Deossa SuĂĄrez
  • 21 M. Roca JunquĂ©
  • 7 A. dos Santos
  • 22 F. AlarcĂłn SuĂĄrez
  • 10 A. Ezzalzouli
  • 19 T. Parrott
Porto
  • 99 D. Meireles Costa
  • 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
  • 13 P. Rosario
  • 4 J. Kiwior
  • 74 F. Moura
  • 8 V. Froholdt
  • 22 A. Varela
  • 10 G. Veiga Novas
  • 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
  • 19 A. Valente Silva
  • 11 E. Aquino Cossa
Substitutes
  • 13 D. Conde Alcolado
  • 25 D. Ceballos FernĂĄndez
  • 16 D. GĂłmez
  • 3 D. Llorente RĂ­os
  • 20 G. Lo Celso
  • 2 H. BellerĂ­n Moruno
  • 9 J. HernĂĄndez SuĂĄrez
  • 17 R. Riquelme Reche
  • 8 P. Fornals Malla
  • 27 J. Morante AntĂșnez
  • 15 Á. Fidalgo FernĂĄndez
  • 6 F. Bernal Cruz
  • 42 S. Fofana
  • 16 I. Hwang
  • 9 S. Omorodion Aghehowa
  • 12 Z. Sanusi
  • 20 A. Costa
  • 77 O. Pietuszewski
  • 14 C. Morais Ramos
  • 18 N. PĂ©rez
  • 92 J. Moreira Teixeira
  • 29 S. GimĂ©nez
  • 33 J. de Souza Menezes
  • 64 L. Domingos Vieira Barata Gomes

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