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Real Madrid – RB Leipzig4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Real Madrid
3.53
Total xG
4.40
RB Leipzig
0.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Madrid | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.27 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Real Madrid scores 3.4 goals per game at home in the league, RB Leipzig concedes 3.67 per game away
- Form: Real Madrid won 4 of their last 5 matches, while RB Leipzig lost all 3 away matches in their league season
Risks
- xG: Real Madrid recorded 1.60 xG per game across 5 matches with xG data, but scored 2.6 goals per game
- Rest days: Real Madrid with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Real Madrid85%
Draw10%
RB Leipzig5%
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw95%
RB Leipzig or draw15%
No draw90%
Goals
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.581%
Under 2.519%
Over 3.564%
Under 3.536%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
3:0
From xG 3.53 : 0.87, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
4:0
8%
3:1
8%
4:1
7%
2:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Madrid: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- RB Leipzig: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Real Madrid: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Real Madrid: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Real Madrid: 11 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Roma: 3 goals (83', 85', 90')
Lineups
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 · RB Leipzig 4-2-3-1
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 18 A. Carreras
- 20 B. Silva
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 15 A. Guler
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 7 V. Júnior
- 10 K. Mbappé
RB Leipzig
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 17 R. Baku
- 4 W. Orban
- 23 C. Lukeba
- 22 D. Raum
- 13 N. Seiwald
- 21 N. El Aynaoui
- 10 B. Gruda
- 28 C. Nkunku
- 7 A. Nordby Nusa
- 40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
Substitutes
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
- 14 A. Tchouaméni
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 3 É. Gabriel Militão
- 13 A. Lunin
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 9 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 16 I. Konaté
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 27 T. Pitarch Pinar
- 27 T. Gomis
- 30 A. Maksimović
- 11 J. Bakayoko
- 39 B. Henrichs
- 35 M. Finkgräfe
- 14 C. Baumgartner
- 16 L. Klostermann
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 20 R. Reitz
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 3 M. Esteve
- 2 A. Koné
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