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Real Betis – Feyenoord1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Real Betis
2.25
Total xG
3.59
Feyenoord
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Betis | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −1.43 | |
| Attack strength (1.75x league average) | +1.24 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −1.14 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.68 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4.2 goals/match) | +0.59 | |
| Rising form (4.2 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.59 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Tsuyoshi Watanabe on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 54% of goal output missing (only 45% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home form: Real Betis average 2 goals per game at home in the league this season and won 6 of 9 league matches
- Attack: Real Betis score 2 goals per game at home in the league and concede 1.4 goals per game
- Shots: Real Betis averaged 15.2 shots and 6.2 shots on target per game over their last 5 matches
Risks
- Away form: Feyenoord are undefeated in the league with 7 wins in 9 matches and score 4 goals per game away
- xG: Feyenoord registered 2.60 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 4.2 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Real Betis57%
Draw22%
Feyenoord21%
Double chance
Real Betis or draw79%
Feyenoord or draw43%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.26 : 1.34, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Feyenoord: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Feyenoord: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Feyenoord with Gjivai Zechiël starting: 3.2 goals/game, without him: 1.7 (11/19 games, last 30)
- Feyenoord: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Real Betis: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Real Betis: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 24)
Lineups
Real Betis 4-2-3-1 · Feyenoord 4-3-3
Real Betis
- 1 Á. Vallés Rosa
- 2 H. Bellerín Moruno
- 5 M. Bartra Aregall
- 4 Natan
- 11 F. García Torres
- 8 P. Fornals Malla
- 21 M. Roca Junqué
- 7 A. dos Santos
- 22 F. Alarcón Suárez
- 10 A. Ezzalzouli
- 19 T. Parrott
Feyenoord
- 1 T. Ernst
- 26 G. Read
- 6 J. St. Juste
- 35 M. Marmol Medina
- 16 J. López Carballo
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 23 A. Hadj Moussa
- 19 I. Ferri Julià
- 10 L. Valente
Substitutes
- 13 D. Conde Alcolado
- 25 D. Ceballos Fernández
- 16 D. Gómez
- 3 D. Llorente Ríos
- 20 G. Lo Celso
- 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
- 18 N. Deossa Suárez
- 17 R. Riquelme Reche
- 24 A. Ruibal García
- 27 J. Morante Antúnez
- 15 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 6 F. Bernal Cruz
- 39 L. Bossin
- 27 G. Diarra
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 11 G. Albuquerque Borges
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 14 S. Steijn
- 20 M. Deijl
- 22 T. van den Elshout
- 57 J. Schaken
- 32 T. Wessels
- 33 F. Kastenmeier
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