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Club Brugge – Lens3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Club Brugge
2.81
Total xG
4.23
Lens
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Club Brugge | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.27 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.80 | |
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.43 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.28 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Club Brugge averages 2.5 goals per match at home in the league, Lens concedes 1.75 per match away
- Form: Club Brugge won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Lens won 2 in 5 matches
Risks
- Defence: Club Brugge allowed 2.29 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1.6 goals per match
- Away: Lens average 1.75 goals per match away in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Club Brugge66%
Draw18%
Lens16%
Double chance
Club Brugge or draw84%
Lens or draw34%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Over 3.561%
Under 3.539%
Both teams score
Yes72%
No28%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.81 : 1.42, rounded up only from .98% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
8%
2:2
6%
3:2
5%
3:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Club Brugge: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Club Brugge 4-2-3-1 · Lens 3-4-2-1
Club Brugge
- 1 Y. Sommer
- 64 K. Sabbe
- 58 J. Spileers
- 44 B. Mechele
- 65 J. Seys
- 8 F. Potts
- 20 H. Vanaken
- 9 C. Borges
- 80 F. Lemaréchal
- 11 J. Virgili Tenas
- 7 N. Tresoldi
Lens
- 40 R. Risser
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 6 S. Baidoo
- 14 M. Udol
- 23 S. Abdul Hamid
- 27 M. Cuisance
- 21 A. Haidara
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 28 J. Kadile
- 9 T. Hazard
- 29 F. Ivanović
Substitutes
- 77 A. Vasovic
- 16 C. Tsawa
- 67 M. Diakhon
- 41 H. Siquet
- 10 H. Vetlesen
- 17 R. Vermant
- 29 N. Jackers
- 3 H. Lee
- 81 A. Vanden Driessche
- 32 M. Dams
- 85 T. Koren
- 39 M. Robberechts
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 4 N. Čelik
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 11 O. Édouard
- 1 R. Gurtner
- 32 K. Antonio
- 20 J. Todibo
- 8 Y. Titraoui
- 16 M. Gorgelin
- 31 S. Sagnan
- 38 M.Soares
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