Match report →
Porto – PSV0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Porto
1.82
Total xG
3.23
PSV
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Porto | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| Attack strength (1.42x league average) | +0.47 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.31 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.7 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.19 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| 25% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 2.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/away: Porto scored 2.25 goals per game at home in the league this season, PSV concede 1.6 per game away
- Form: Porto won all 8 games in the league this season, PSV lost 3 of their last 5 matches
Risks
- Attack: PSV score 2.8 goals per game away in the league this season
- Defense: Porto conceded 1.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Porto46%
Draw25%
PSV28%
Double chance
Porto or draw72%
PSV or draw54%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.82 : 1.41, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
7%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Porto: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- PSV: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Borja Sainz: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Porto: 7 of 24 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- PSV: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Porto 4-3-3 · PSV 4-2-3-1
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 A. Costa
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 12 Z. Sanusi
- 8 V. Froholdt
- 13 P. Rosario
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
- 9 S. Omorodion Aghehowa
- 77 O. Pietuszewski
PSV
- 32 M. Kovář
- 8 S. Dest
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
- 18 F. Kostić
- 24 K. Sano
- 17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
- 21 S. Mijnans
- 5 I. Perišić
- 20 G. Til
Substitutes
- 42 S. Fofana
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 16 I. Hwang
- 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
- 22 A. Varela
- 24 J. Santos da Costa
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
- 14 C. Morais Ramos
- 74 F. Moura
- 18 N. Pérez
- 29 S. Giménez
- 33 J. de Souza Menezes
- 23 M. Bro Hansen
- 31 N. Fernandez
- 1 N. Olij
- 6 R. Flamingo
- 27 D. Man
- 4 A. Obispo
- 51 T. Smolenaars
- 35 A. Santos
- 37 A. Bouhamdi
- 42 S. Cornecion
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →