Match report →
Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Fenerbahçe
1.99
Total xG
3.28
Slavia Praha
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fenerbahçe | Slavia Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | −2.01 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +1.28 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.81 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| Rising form (3.5 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.41 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.35 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.2 season average) | −0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.56x league average) | +0.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 34 vs 28, 6 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 28 vs 34, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 2.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Fenerbahçe averages 4 goals per game at home in 4 league matches this season
- Attack: Fenerbahçe averages 6.6 shots on target per game from 18.2 total shots in the last 5 matches
- League: Fenerbahçe averages 2.75 goals per game in 8 league matches this season
Risks
- Defence: Slavia Praha concedes 0.2 goals per game away from home in 5 league matches this season
- Form: Slavia Praha is unbeaten in 11 league matches this season with 8 wins and 3 draws
- Head-to-head: Slavia Praha won 2 of the 3 previous head-to-head matches against Fenerbahçe
All probabilities
Result
Fenerbahçe52%
Draw24%
Slavia Praha23%
Double chance
Fenerbahçe or draw77%
Slavia Praha or draw48%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.99 : 1.29, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
7%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
2:2
Final score
Lineups
Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1 · Slavia Praha 3-4-2-1
Fenerbahçe
- 31 E. Santana de Moraes
- 27 N. Cabral Semedo
- 37 M. Škriniar
- 15 N. Aké
- 3 A. Brown
- 91 N. Kanté
- 6 M. Guendouzi Olié
- 70 O. Aydın
- 11 M. Greenwood
- 7 M. Aktürkoğlu
- 19 V. Muriqi
Slavia Praha
- 35 J. Markovič
- 27 T. Vlček
- 4 D. Zima
- 6 C. N'Guessan
- 15 M. Suleiman
- 16 D. Moses
- 30 W. Nowak
- 8 Oskar Kubiak
- 20 E. Ayaosi
- 10 D. Šturm
- 17 L. Provod
Substitutes
- 21 K. Peprah Oppong
- 77 O. Mimović
- 9 R. Lukaku Menama
- 14 Y. Demir
- 45 N. Dorgeles
- 13 T. Çetin
- 28 B. Elmaz
- 22 M. Mercan
- 17 İ. Kahveci
- 5 İ. Yüksek
- 34 F. Günok
- 3 T. Holeš
- 13 M. Chytil
- 23 M. Sadílek
- 22 T. Diakité
- 40 A. Rezek
- 14 S. Isife
- 42 M. Konečný
- 32 P. Kačor
- 29 N. Domchak
- 47 D. Barcot
- 53 M. Kotrba
- 60 P. Potměšil
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →