Match report →
Sporting CP – LASK Linz2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Sporting CP
3.08
Total xG
3.88
LASK Linz
0.79
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting CP | LASK Linz |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +1.28 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −1.14 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.37 | |
| Attack strength (1.54x league average) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Sporting CP are unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 3 wins, LASK Linz suffered 3 defeats in 5 matches
- Attack: Sporting CP score 2.5 goals per match in the league this season, LASK Linz concede 2.6 per match in their last 5 matches
Risks
- xG: Sporting CP created 1.40 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 2.2 goals per match
- Away: LASK Linz score 2.6 goals per match away in the league this season
- Head-to-head: LASK Linz won 2 of the 3 head-to-head meetings against Sporting CP
All probabilities
Result
Sporting CP82%
Draw13%
LASK Linz6%
Double chance
Sporting CP or draw94%
LASK Linz or draw18%
No draw87%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Over 3.554%
Under 3.546%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
3:0
From xG 3.08 : 0.79, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
8%
2:1
8%
4:0
8%
4:1
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting CP: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Sporting CP: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- LASK Linz: 10 of 28 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Sporting CP: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- LASK Linz: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sporting CP: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Sporting CP 4-3-3 · LASK Linz 3-4-3
Sporting CP
- 30 K. Pereira Azarias
- 22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
- 72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
- 25 G. Inácio
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 8 J. Arnauth Barrocas Simões
- 5 S. Altimira Clavell
- 77 I. Doumbia
- 10 G. Cipriano Catamo
- 97 L. Suárez Charris
- 19 N. Irankunda
LASK Linz
- 1 L. Jungwirth
- 4 X. Mbuyamba
- 43 J. Tornich
- 16 A. Andrade Cedeño
- 20 K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
- 10 R. Ljubicic
- 30 S. Horvath
- 25 J. Nyabeye Dibango
- 9 K. Daněk
- 11 S. Kalajdzic
- 27 C. Lang
Substitutes
- 13 G. Vagiannidis
- 7 F. Ioannidis
- 31 L. Lira dos Santos
- 1 R. Dantas da Silva
- 4 S. Andersen
- 58 F. Gonçalves
- 73 E. Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo
- 9 R. Nel
- 21 P. Lima Barros
- 55 I. Ba
- 50 R. Amores Dias
- 28 J. Derry
- 23 D. Elfadli
- 18 A. Schöpf
- 6 M. Bogarde
- 7 S. Adeniran
- 8 M. Usor
- 29 F. Flecker
- 33 T. Schützenauer
- 3 M. Freckleton
- 21 M. Verhaeghe
- 45 N. Kane
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