Match report →
Lens – Como1 : 9
Why the model thinks so
Lens
1.53
Total xG
3.32
Como
1.79
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lens | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.26 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Attack strength (1.32x league average) | +0.66 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.35 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Como won all 5 of their last 5 matches, while Lens recorded 2 wins in their last 5 matches
- Attack: Como scored 2.6 goals per match in the last 5 matches, Lens conceded 1.6 goals per match in the last 5 matches
- Home/Away: Lens scored 2.25 goals per match at home this season, Como 2.17 goals per match away
Risks
- Rest days: Como with 3 days since their last match
- xG: Como generated 1.75 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 2.6 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Lens32%
Draw25%
Como43%
Double chance
Lens or draw57%
Como or draw68%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.53 : 1.79, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
1:9
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Como: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Lens: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Como: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Lens: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Lens: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Lens 3-4-2-1 · Como 4-2-3-1
Lens
- 40 R. Risser
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 6 S. Baidoo
- 32 K. Antonio
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 27 M. Cuisance
- 21 A. Haidara
- 14 M. Udol
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 9 T. Hazard
- 29 F. Ivanović
Como
- 1 J. Butez
- 27 Y. Couto
- 4 J. Naveros
- 2 M. Kempf
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 5 M. Perrone
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 9 A. Douvikas
Substitutes
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 4 N. Čelik
- 23 S. Abdul Hamid
- 1 R. Gurtner
- 24 J. Gradit
- 20 J. Todibo
- 8 Y. Titraoui
- 16 M. Gorgelin
- 28 J. Kadile
- 31 S. Sagnan
- 38 M.Soares
- 97 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 21 S. Ricci
- 20 M. Baturina
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 13 A. Dossena
- 30 M. Liberali
- 16 K. da Silva
- 12 L. Ginelli
- 54 M. Papaccioli
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